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Methodology

How we score
every call.

Bullzeye runs on receipts, not vibes. We track what influencers actually said, then score it against real market data. Here's exactly how that works — and, just as honestly, where it gets hard and what we choose to leave out.

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01

Not every post is a call

Most of what gets posted isn't a prediction. Every post is first classified — and only genuine, actionable calls get scored: a ticker, a direction, and real conviction.

✓We score
  • ✓Forward calls with a ticker + direction — "$NVDA breakout, targets 155 / 165"
  • ✓Rated buy-lists ("Strong Buy: A, B, C")
  • ✓An endorsed analyst target the poster backs
✕We skip
  • ✕Brags & P&L screenshots ("up 40%, as I said")
  • ✕Trims, exits, status updates
  • ✕Soft-mentions — "looking at $AMD", "might do some DD"
  • ✕"Stay away from $XYZ" — no position, not a short
  • ✕Commentary, news, tier-lists, banter
Only about a third to three-quarters of a person's posts qualify — a chartist posting clean setups scores ~73%; a thesis trader who mostly comments and brags, ~34%.
02

Reading the messy stuff

Real posts are ambiguous. Turning one into a clean call means handling that honestly, not pretending it's tidy.

The target is in the picture.
Chart-only posts carry the direction and price targets inside the image. So we read the charts, not just the text.
The cashtag can be wrong.
When the $TAG and the chart disagree, the chart wins — we've seen $EA tagged on what was clearly an EHang chart.
A dollar amount usually isn't a target.
"$150k UPWK" is position size; "$50B moonshot" is a market cap. Neither is a price target.
No deadline is fine.
Most calls never state a timeframe — so we don't invent one. The peak model below is built exactly for that.
“Stay away” isn't a short.
Avoiding a stock is not a position. Nothing to score.
03

The peak model

Here's the core problem: most calls have no target and no deadline. So how do you decide when a call is done, and whether it worked? We let the stock tell us.

We find the first true peak in the stock's path after the call — the first real reversal, not just daily noise — and that peak is the call's close. No target needed, no clock.

“Real” means the move stands out beyond the stock's own noise — at least twice its normal daily wobble (2σ). Small wiggles don't count; a genuine top does. It works both ways: for a bearish call, the “peak” is a real move down.

entry (the call)noise · ignoredfirst true peak = close
The stylized path rises past small wiggles (below the noise threshold) to one prominent peak — that peak is where the call closes and the return is measured.
04

Every call lands in one of three states

Once we run the detector forward from the call, the outcome is one of three — and open calls are always shown, never hidden.

Win · topped
Loss · faded
Live · running
Topped
A real peak above the entry — a closed win. We record how far it ran and how long it took.
Faded
The first real move was flat or down — a closed loss.
Running
No real reversal yet — still live, could go either way. ~⅓ of calls sit here at any time, by design.
05

Honest by design

The rules that keep the numbers credible — the parts we can't quietly tune in anyone's favor.

The peak is a definition, not a dial.
We set the threshold at 2σ because that's what a human points at as 'the top' — not because it flatters anyone. We checked: no threshold maximizes returns, so it can't be gamed for prettier numbers.
We throw out broken data.
A few prices are glitched — a sub-penny entry can read as +99,000,000%. Any call beyond ±2000% is excluded as an artifact: 0.03% of all calls, every one verified junk.
We need enough data.
A call needs at least 20 trading days of price history to be classified. Too new, and it stays out.
We show the average, on purpose.
The headline 'avg winner' is a mean — so a monster 10× call shows in full. We're not hiding the tails.
New callers read “in validation”.
Under 100 scored calls, a record is still forming — marked blue, not green, so a small hot streak isn't mistaken for a proven track record.

Now go see the receipts.

Every influencer, every call, scored by exactly these rules.

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