Bullz
eye
Scoreboard
Feed
Tickers
Methodology
Rising Stars
Home
Scoreboard
Tickers
Feed
← Scoreboard
›
@aleabitoreddit
@aleabitoreddit
VERIFIED
Serenity
·
1.06M
followers
+ Follow
Watchlist
Share
Swing trader
AI infrastructure
Semis
Crypto miners
Stocks
Avg. peak vs avg. fade
Average return when a call peaks vs fades — and how long each takes.
How we score
Avg. peak
+119%
~89 days
avg. time to first peak
1053
peaked
posted
~89 days
+119%
Avg. fade
-40%
~99 days
avg. time to first fade
861
faded
posted
~99 days
-40%
Track record
Every scored call. Open any row to see the post, and how it compares to what they average when a call peaks and when it fades.
All
101
Peaked
18
Faded
12
Live
71
Call
Post
State
Dir
Return
Days
Posted
▼
$
TSM
I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown). It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability. Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons" 3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given. It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes: -> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time: Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031. Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections. So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement. All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.
Peaked
bull
+12.4%
45d
Sep 13
$
NVDA
I assign essentially 0% probability that Anthropic or OpenAI will slow down frontier development in any meaningful way. And that majority of the "regulation" they try making is regulatory capture to slow down competition. 1. Anthropic/OpenAI will not willingly hand over their lead to Gemini, xAI, Meta, or another frontier lab. -> Elon will want a slowdown to catch up with OpenAI. -> OpenAI will want a regulatory framework to slow down xAI + competition. Every lab has an incentive to support rules that constrain competitors more than they constrain itself 2. The US is not going to meaningfully slow frontier AI development while China continues advancing. (as seen with Trump's post today about rejecting AI slowdown). It would be probably the most flagrant national security risk if China leapfrogged the US in capability. Especially when both sides have called frontier AI capabilities "cyber nuclear weapons" 3. China will not slow down frontier AI development. That is a given. It will be theater if any of these parties agrees so publicly, because behind the scenes: -> They'll likely keep on progressing, whether it's OpenAI, the US Government, or China. If they wanted to slow down, they could have done so themselves at any point in time: Yet everyone is still fighting over the scarce resources to run AI as seen with memory procurement from Samsung going all the way to 2031. Or the $NVDA / $AVGO supply constrained 70-100%+ Y/Y growth protections. So I suggest people unfollow the clowns on X that predict AI stocks from $NVDA to $TSM to $MU will crash for engagement. All this does is cause retail to panic short term and hand over the keys to the kingdom over to others.
Peaked
bull
+9.6%
45d
Sep 13
$
LITE
Citibank TMT: "lasers and optical fibers are being positioned as the "next HBM." I've been talking about lasers like $LITE / $AAOI since 2025... and architectural shifts toward CW, ahead of the current industry consensus. And fully agree with Lightmatter/Citi. Just for reference: For lasers: $LITE / $SIVE / $AAOI / $COHR / $MTSI / Furukawa / Sumitomo are your better known ones. For fiber: $GLW / Furukawa / Fujikura / Sumitomo are your more well-known exposure (obviously a lot more in the supply chain) *disclosure, personal exposure to theme With added commentary that: "Tight supply conditions will support a scarcity premium for these assets." We're already seeing price hikes with lasers as seen with $SIVE channel checks at CIOE 2026 Shenzhen today + $LITE commentary from earnings. So I think the 2027–2028 photonics supercycle will look a lot like memory did in 2025–2026. Especially as optical content/GPU-ASIC goes up significantly per Goldman Sachs revised estimates...
Peaked
bull
+14.6%
49d
Sep 9
$
NVDA
$NVDA told JP Morgan... That their revenue could increase more than 100%+ Y/Y unconstrained. But ended up giving a ~70% growth projection because that's what Nvidia believes they can supply. FY27 est: ~$401B revenue... FY28: ~$682B at 70% or >$802B unconstrained. - Nvidia IR said it gave the updated outlook because it had greater visibility + saw a meaningful gap between Street ests. and its own projections - Inference is now larger than training after being roughly 50/50 about 18 months ago I wonder if Nvidia will be the first $10T company... this growth is absurd.
Peaked
bull
+6.7%
56d
Sep 2
$
SOI.PA
Remember my $SOI thesis anon? Soitec interview commentary today: - 80% of capacity reservation agreements expected within 1-2 weeks, with more than 10 in total. - $200M Photonics-SOI revenue now described as "absolutely a floor" $TSM also sees SiPH going mainstream in 2027 with market share topping 50%+ of the optical transceiver market If you hold a monopoly-like position over a chokepoint: (UBS estimates Soitec has 95% share of the market for substrates underpinning silicon photonics chips) Revenue usually flows through you.
Peaked
bull
+48.6%
58d
Aug 31
$
NVDA
FYI to the AI bears: $NVDA projects $1.3T of hyperscaler spend for 2027. Up from ~$800B in 2026, alongside ~70% revenue growth despite remaining capacity constrained… far above prior Street expectations of ~45%. That capex flows across the AI supply chain… from memory and networking to foundries. Especially through the new bottlenecks/chokepoints that didn’t benefit from older generations. We’re like 2 hours into the party where people started off drinking Sapporo draft beer. Someone spiked Situational’s drinks and we had to pause the party for 30 min. But now it’s back on with tequila shots on the table. I think the real party is about to begin.
Peaked
bull
+10.1%
59d
Aug 30
$
SIVE.ST
Here's the angle I'm looking at $SIVE at: Companies/CSPs have been going out of their way way to lock up any qualified CW laser capacity for optical transceivers. So now, Sivers is coming into the industry with: - Large capacity from Win Semi - "tremendous capacity that is available now" from a new foundry (likely qualifications since 2024) since it's engaged "for a while" And what excited me from this earnings was the "6 pluggable/module" engagements (which is an enormous amount). The nuance I'm reading is: - $COHR said it sees no near term ability to sell InP lasers externally because internal transceiver demand consumes all available - $AAOI said the same about consuming laser capacity internally (wasn't a major merchant supplier before though). - $LITE has been bottlenecked and been buying lasers off the open market Your previous merchant players rerouted laser capacity internally. So a lot of the bigger names (eg. Eoptolink/Innolight as just a random example) are probably looking to source more lasers. And that kinda matches the quote "capable of very rapid qualification and ramp" (which would not match Series B startup)... Lot of people are asking why aren't there LTAs to 2030 then? -> You can't just randomly escape the qualification process that established players have already completed. Why aren't the customers disclosed? And as seen with the $MRVL + $POET engagement, you can't just disclose the vendors you're working with. But the "$1.2B opportunity pipeline" almost doubled relative to the jump of $JBL + $GFS. So it's signals that the new pluggable engagements might be pretty substantial relative to Jabil. So if $SIVE comes along with enormous amounts of CW DFB laser capacity during a supply shortage... The industry conditions have changed in a major way that increases conversion rates of engagements. And with the sheer size from all your ~est. customers jabil, globalfoundries, poet, aeva, lightium, ayar, (maybe lightmatter, celestial, lightelligence), 6 other pluggable players, and others. I think Sivers is going to cook after connecting the dots.
Peaked
bull
+31%
61d
Aug 28
$
IQE
Feels like my $IQE thesis Feb this year got validated alongside $AXTI and others. (I still long on both) So I stopped covering them as much. But TLDR on updates: Early this year, IQE was a distressed but critical chokepoint in the optical supply chain with links to $LITE and others when I published my thesis on it. Since then: - $MTSI signed long term epiwafer supply agreements, took a stake in the company, now IQE is bank debt free (Macom has convertibles, but that's positive) - $TSEM signed agreements for InP epiwafers. - Management explicitly said its IQE agreement was signed to secure the "strategic III-V epiwafer supply required for that roadmap" - IQE signed another ~$14M mysterious AI DC contract. The only part that's still playing out with my earlier thesis is IQE converting their latent/underutilized capacity toward AI DC segment, to match peers like Landmark in the space (which takes time, like slightly over a year if I remember correctly). There's some national security implications that I'll avoid talking about that makes them more important. But basically: FY2025 revenue: £97.3m FY2026 guidance: over £126.5m They're rapidly growing again in the optical sector, out of bank debt/distressed liquidation state, and remains a critical chokepoint in Western optical supply chains. Now... with new agreements with your leading photonics companies for revenue growth, and players like Macom serving as a soft backstop. After a thesis gets validated, typically I just sit back and enjoy growth of a business.
Peaked
bull
+13.5%
76d
Aug 13
$
SMCI
$SMCI 2027 guidance was actually unholy: $65-$72 billion FY 2027 revenue guidance... vs. ~$52.4B expected, a casual +$16.1B above consensus. SMCI logged a massive $60B+ in news order from this earnings. That timeline is also interesting when they announced a plan to co-build $SPCX + xAI DCs "within a year" back in June.. But if SMCI sustain 10-15% gross margins off that ~$70B revenue guidance... I think there's a lot of room for rerating given MC is ~$20B (NFA, I have short term positions in SMCI now from this ER). Most important thing is learning about 2027 margins from call today.
Peaked
bull
+42.2%
78d
Aug 11
$
NBIS
Today I'm writing a weekend guide on how to do DD when shorting $NBIS: First, you look at hyperscaler earnings for AI cloud read through: > $GOOGL: reports record AI cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $AMZN: reports record AI Cloud demand + backlog + margin increases from earnings > $META: reports higher than expected prices for available capacity from earnings. Now, time to look at Nebius: -> $NBIS: Growing hundreds of percent to $7-9B ARR by Q4. Growing margins, and guided 4GW+ contracted power. -> Sees Uber/Waymo splitting, putting more focus on Avride -> Sees Clickhouse growing rapidly every quarter. Okay looks bad! But next, you need a hedge? -> Wow! A $NIKE brand executive, after the stock dropped 75% over the past 5 years, went to $LULU to save that brand next? Lululemon seems good. Conclusion: Short Nebius and go long on $LULU
Peaked
bull
+47.7%
81d
Aug 8
$
MU
Yes, I'm still bullish on memory like $MU / Samsung. As I said earlier, markets tend to rotate from bottleneck to bottleneck. This week it looks $AXTI to $LITE in the photonics sector is the focus again. The thing is... the primary thing that changed are the stock prices, followed by some narratives + updates sprinkled in here and there. For photonics: > We already knew $COHR / $LITE lasers were completely sold out for the next 2 years during July's drop. > We knew about demand imbalance from $AAOI from last quarter's earnings calls. Nothing deteriorated fundamentally during July's crash, other than listed price after liquidations. Yet tons of people called $AAOI a "scam" when it dropped to $75, or $AXTI a "scam" on its drop to $35... But are bullish again at $140 or $80, when the transciver/InP substrate bottleneck hasn't changed at all, but maybe even got worse... (eg. draft for US ban on new china optical transceivers, scale up demand projections) For Memory: I'm witnessing a lot of retail capitulation, but the same people I'm seeing were mega bullish after $MU signed 16 SCAs and gave exceptional projections a month ago. Or were celebrating Samsung having the highest operating profit in the world. There's updates here and there eg. Rubin Ultra with memory optimizations (which Nvidia strives for every generation), with prices no longer being hiked way above expectations to the extreme. But the operating income relative to MC is just absurd around current prices, especially memory becomes structural. And the demand imbalance should be even worse next year. People tend to capitulate and follow narratives when a sector drops (eg. Helium/LNG back in Iran war), even if the bottleneck or fundamental situation hasn't really changed much (eg. $SPCX Elon earnings call reiterating memory tightness). I can't tell others what to to do: But $AAOI at $140 and $AAOI at $75 are the same company. Samsung at a $1.5T MC and Samsung at a $980B MC are the same company. Just valuations and narratives (often noise) change, and markets rotate from sector to sector.
Peaked
bull
+25%
81d
Aug 8
$
LITE
US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...
Peaked
bull
+88.2%
91d
Jul 29
$
SIVE.ST
US Gov to take 1% stake in $GFS, and award them $300m for the US CHIPS ACT. This is actually a strong read through on $SIVE / $LITE, given this CHIPS ACT is specifically aimed at advancing CPO + Silicon Photonics. (For reference, Sivers and Lumentum were the only two public laser suppliers named in GFS presentation slides. Sivers laser arrays was named recently as a reference design in Globalfoundries SCALE for CPO). Per US Gov announcement: "GlobalFoundries will receive up to $300 million to accelerate domestic CPO R&D by two to three years" (NIST) Never thought we'd see the US Gov / $INTC foundry playbook for CPO in specific...
Peaked
bull
+63%
91d
Jul 29
$
AAOI
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
Peaked
bull
+75.7%
92d
Jul 28
$
SIVE.ST
I personally see it as extreme short term deleveraging that overshot many individual names. - $BE to $TER reported blowout results, with Bloom reporting 166% Y/Y rev growth + expanding margins + raised 2026 guidance... Teradyne reported 104% Y/Y revenue growth with 300%+ EPS growth. Your leading optical players over in China reported amazing preliminary earnings + extremely strong read through for the Western photonics sector. Think earnings season tend to remind markets about continued AI acceleration. I'm expecting $LITE, $SNDK / SK Hynix, and sector leader ERs to continue that trend. But it does feel like markets are rewarding existing acceleration more rather than future growth a year out over near-term revisions as seen with $AMKR. But as a TLDR, looks very positive for the themes I'm tracking. - Then you have $GOOGL capex raised to $195-$205B, which is typically the biggest AI demand signal from hyperscalers. - 77% 0bps change est. next FOMC decision from prediction markets. Trump administration on Monday called for the Fed to lower interest rates. So your 3x rate hikes fears this year seem kinda overblown. - Chinese fears from DUV to $CXMT overflooding are extremely overblown as well. We see this with every sector from time to time until people remember that lasers or HBM bottlenecks for a reason. As for personal thoughts, it was unhealthy seeing everything rise up or down together, especially with these themes. But I'm personally not worried since I have full conviction in my names, especially optical interconnects like $SIVE or $AAOI. $META compute and $GOOGL GCP margins/growth shows increasing demand for $NBIS and similar neocloud business models. $META + other hyperscaler notes around LTAs with $SNDK and Samsung/SK Hynix, $MU point to structural memory demand. Can go on and on... But when you have Jim Cramer telling every margined DC trader to "sell everything" at market open and news saying there's an AI bubble. I do hate it when others say "it's dropping so sell". My belief is that the important thing to look is accelerating revenue/EPS growth. And if that thesis stays in-tact with revenue acceleration in line with hyperscaler capex. TLDR: I see signs of AI demand / revenue acceleration, hyperscaler capex is one of the most important things to track. And my guess is that we'll see the theme recover broadly. But I can't predict what hour, day, or week that happens.
Peaked
bull
+54%
92d
Jul 28
$
CCXI
FCC set to ban Chinese imports of humanoid and quadruped robots per Reuters. To protect American Humanoid/Robotics programs. Agility Robotics ( $CCXI ) and other US humanoid players should be happy to hear this. https://t.co/s2dFWTA4EX
Peaked
bull
+18.5%
92d
Jul 28
$
LITE
$GOOGL reported earnings today: EPS: $9.11 actual vs $2.91 expected - retail reactions to EPS blowout is kinda just accounting noise, since $SPCX, Anthropic, and others were likely large contributors. Revenue: $119.7B actual vs. $116.98B expected Google Cloud Revenue: $24.77B +82% Y/Y, vs. 63-65% expected ($22.2-$22.6B) - this is a very large beat and most material part so far. Cloud Operating Income: ~$8.81B, implying 35.6% margin vs. 32.9% Q1. Capex: $44.92B vs ~$44.15B (basically in line). So initial read through is Google Cloud accelerating growth with expanding margins is genuinely bullish for AI demand. Their former $180-$190B capex guidance is already extremely large, and as long as we get around these numbers in the earnings call + forward projections... Should be good to go for $LITE and the other optics/networking trade. (eg. last earnings, they said DC and networking would be ~40% of capex spend). Hyperscaler earnings transcripts are probably the most important thing to pay attention to with the AI capex trade. And that should be in 3 minutes.
Peaked
bull
+36.6%
98d
Jul 22
$
SNDK
It’s hard for anyone in the AI space not to be bullish. Capex is ramping up. Exponentially. And flowing directly down to: Neoclouds: $CIFR, $NBIS, $WULF, $IREN, Connectivity: $ALAB, $CRDO, $CLS. Energy: $VST, $FLNC, $TE, $EOSe Semi/foundries: $NVDA, $AMD, $GOOGL, $TSM Memory: $SNDK, $MU, and $STX In the past few weeks alone, we got: 1. Manhattan Project for AI - US government is giving top models access to propriety labs data for accelerating research 2. $GOOGL spending $40 on DC buildout in Texas 3. Anthropic spending $50 on EC buildout to support their Opus 4.5+ models 4. $TSM confining record forward revenue numbers (AI spend) 5. $NVDA confirming record forward revenue numbers (AI spend, 2Y production locked in) 6. $META upping 2025 DC/AI capex spend to $40-$45B for llama5-6 7. 3x rate cut this year to accelerate growth and make funding cheaper. 8. Dominion Energy warning of massive AI power load surge from AI datacenters 9. $AVGO signaling AI networking orders at unprecedented scale 10. UAE and sovereign countries pushing into AI We’re not seeing any slowdown. Only record growth. In fact, with the recent model developments from Claude Opus 4.5, Gemini 3, and now new commitment from the US government, it feels like we're just seeing the tip of the new frontier for Artificial Intelligence.
Peaked
bull
+959%
337d
Nov 25
showing 18 — keep scrolling
