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@ArdiNSC
@ArdiNSC
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Ardi
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Technical analysis
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Crypto
When right vs when wrong
Average return when a call wins vs loses — and how long each takes.
When right
+47%
peaks in
~61d
·
185
wins
When wrong
-38%
fades in
~62d
·
212
losses
Track record
Every scored call. Open any row to see the post and how it stacked up against his usual.
All
100
Wins
11
Losses
14
Live
75
Call
Post
State
Dir
Return
Days
Posted
▼
$ETH
People keep asking me.. "Ardi, why are you willing to bet on $ETH?" Let me make it clear. I don't know much about what ETH offers as an ecosystem, and I care even less. I don't listen to Twitter sentiment telling me it's over either. The only thing I care about is the opportunity the chart puts in front of me. The second largest asset in the industry, sitting 3x away from its all-time high, is a low-risk asymmetric setup for the years ahead. Even at the very worst, entering here, which I'm not planning to, I'd likely triple my money. That isn't a bad trade in any version of events. The reason I've lasted a decade as a trader is because I block out the narratives and the opinions. Every bear cycle brings the same ones. "BTC is dead." "ETH is dead." Imagine how much I'd have left on the table listening to any of it. As long as the chart gives me the setup, I'll take my bets and run my gameplan. Nobody's opinion enters into it.
Live
▲ bull
-3.6%
20d
Jun 13
$BTC
bitcoin:native Ascending triangle forming on the LTF. Making a case for a local breakout through $64.3K, with higher lows building on the trendline. This is still the expected bounce inside the larger bear structure however, and I expect $66K to be the level it struggles with. In classical trading, we call it the "principle of polarity." Once a critical support like $66K is lost, it flips into resistance, and becomes the area trapped longs are forced to sell back into. 🤟
Live
▼ bear
+6.4%
20d
Jun 13
$ZEC
$ZEC $480 retest. ✅ Failed to hold it as support. ✅ Rollover. ✅ The corrective roadmap I set out for ZEC has been followed pretty perfectly so far. Now, we’re at a pretty black-and-white decision point. The level preventing ZEC from finishing off the roadmap with a flush back into the $300s has been $405. Two touches at that level which produced a 10% bounce. It’s unlikely that continues to hold when each bounce has only set a lower high, especially with BTC carrying most of the market’s momentum. Unless ZEC can form a higher pivot here and break above the lower high at $440, it likely continues down the roadmap. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Live
▼ bear
-3%
21d
Jun 12
$BTC
bitcoin:native One bounce after a 30% drop and the bottom callers are back. Same story all cycle. All we’re seeing here is a bear pennant. A counter-trend consolidation within a broader downtrend. When the chart flagpoles from $83K to $59K in a matter of days, the least you should expect is a counter-trend bounce. There are only two levels that matter in deciding whether the $59K sweep happens sooner rather than later. $64K + $66K. $64K is the current compound pivot. A break there would clear both the pennant and horizontal resistance which would give price a short-term boost. Then BTC needs to reclaim $66K, the former macro range support which now acts as the key resistance. Until both are taken, the path of least resistance is still a sweep of the $59K low and continuation deeper into the $50K range.
Live
▼ bear
+5.1%
22d
Jun 11
$ZEC
$ZEC The most likely scenario. Given we’ve now lost multiple critical areas of support, it’s more than likely that the chart enters a corrective phase. We did see price increase by almost 250% in a short period of time, so it’s not exactly unexpected to see an extended consolidation. What I’m more concerned about is how much of the move this correction gave back. Price already revisited the breakout pivot from the initial move around $250, which started back in April. That means ZEC gave back practically an entire multi-month rally in just a few days. For now, we’ve seen it reclaim some support, but in my opinion, this is no more than an expected relief rally after a brutal flush. What I think happens next is a rally into the $430-480 resistance region, failure to hold it as support, and then another rollover. Once $350 support is lost, I think the chart likely fulfils that route back somewhere toward the breakout pivot. I’d concede this probability if we see consecutive closes above $520 to reclaim the Complex Head and Shoulders structure. Otherwise, I think this correction has unfinished business.
Live
▼ bear
+3.8%
26d
Jun 7
$BTC
$BTC It’s only a matter of time before we retest the $54K range support. Book it. https://t.co/9A5t0VhH1g
Live
▼ bear
+0.9%
27d
Jun 6
$ETH
$ETH has one job over the next few months. Don't get a weekly close below $1500. Because this will be a completely different chart if it does. Everything else is secondary. https://t.co/qE1vX2Hu72
Live
▲ bull
+2.4%
28d
Jun 5
$ZEC
$ZEC Starting to look very heavy. Still no real acceptance above $610, and now we’re seeing price flush through multiple supports. Every attempt above that resistance continues getting aggressively sold back down into deeper levels. Not exactly the type of price action I want to see if this move is preparing for continuation. So for now, this still looks like a complex Head and Shoulders developing, with the multi-peak head already formed and the shoulders building around $610. Given we’ve now lost critical levels off these heavy rejections, the focus shifts back to the neckline at $520. If that former swing pivot breaks, the pattern completes, and we’ll likely see a flush below $500. I’ll be looking to take positions when we get closer to the completion of the pattern. 🤟
Live
▼ bear
+7.4%
29d
Jun 4
$ZEC
$ZEC Decision time. We're now seeing ZEC approach a pretty important level which probably decides whether it has another push in it or not. $610 is the line which it needs to clear. It’s the multi-timeframe resistance pivot, and structurally, it’s still acting as the left shoulder of this setup. We’ve already seen multiple pushes toward $650 get sold straight back below $610, which tells you there is still plenty of trapped liquidity sitting above this region. If price keeps rejecting here, then the macro lower high is probably already being built before continuation lower. But if ZEC can reclaim $610 and hold it across multiple closes, then the local highs just below $700 become the obvious magnet. Given the amount of consecutive rejections back down here, the cleanest risk/reward for longs is still on a break of the range highs. Anything before that can very easily just be the macro lower high setting.
Live
▲ bull
-31.8%
30d
Jun 3
$BTC
In every prior cycle $BTC has always bottomed in Q4 during its bear market years. We’re still in Q2. So for this cycle to break the historical pattern, bulls need to believe BTC can hold above $60K for another 6 months without losing the lows. Good luck with that. https://t.co/CGbJCULTdF
Live
▼ bear
+9.6%
31d
Jun 2
$BTC
$BTC The pressure is building. We've seen BTC lose multiple key support levels in the space of 24 hours, and is now breaking below an already steep downward channel. The daily chart already gave us a compound breakdown of the 4-month trendline and the key $72.5K support. Now we're seeing the same thing develop again on the lower timeframe. That is not a structure which needs to be overcomplicated. Once support starts breaking across multiple timeframes, the market usually starts moving toward the next major liquidity pivot. For me, that sits around $68.7K. Unless BTC can reclaim this breakdown quickly, I think we'll be heading there shortly.
Live
▼ bear
+9.6%
31d
Jun 2
$BTC
$BTC The make or break level. We’re slowly approaching one of the more important tests we’ve had in recent weeks. Trendline + horizontal support at the exact same pivot. The channel trendline itself has carried this range for 4 months, so I don’t think much needs to be said about its importance. But at the same time, price is now testing the $72.5K support, which has also been a key level throughout this entire structure. If BTC loses both, it becomes a compound breakdown which breaks the chart down in multiple ways. And that’s a very different chart structurally. If bulls can't manage to use such an important liquidity pivot for a bounce back into the middle of the range, then the downside is nowhere near over.
Live
▼ bear
+15.4%
32d
Jun 1
$ZEC
$ZEC If we continue to follow the November rally fractal for ZEC, we'll likely start to see a relief rally here to form the next lower high. If it keeps tracking similarly, it would put the rally somewhere in the $600-615 region before continuation to lower support levels. We’ve already seen a retest of the lost double top neckline around $570, which has so far set a lower high. But given how closely these fractals have mirrored each other so far, I wouldn’t be ruling out another push higher just yet.
Live
▼ bear
+20.1%
35d
May 29
$BTC
bitcoin:native If we stay below this $75.5K region, I'd expect something like this to play out. The weekly, daily, and 4H structure all have the same $74-75K region acting as resistance, while the upper side of the channel is sitting around $76K. If we see price manage to get through both, it would give a compound breakout into higher resistance and challenge the downtrend. What I think we'll most likely see is a push into $74.5K-75.5K, failure to breakout, then continuation toward $71.5K. 🫡
Live
▼ bear
+17.8%
35d
May 29
$ETH
$ETH It’s really not that complicated. Once the $1975 support is lost, ETH starts trending back toward the range lows around $1750. You can already smell the toxicity coming on CT once we get there. https://t.co/9hodqvJUyZ https://t.co/3LGiej7r54
Live
▼ bear
+19.3%
36d
May 28
$BTC
$BTC.. told ya. 🤟 $74K sweep successfully taken. I don't make the rules, I just follow them. Now, time to enter the range lows. https://t.co/gfmazk49um https://t.co/WmltWENzvu
Live
▼ bear
+18.9%
37d
May 27
$ZEC
$ZEC Would you look at that.. 1. Compound support at $600 lost. 2. Double Top neckline at $570 tested and lost. 3. Price moves straight into macro support at $540. Result.. we got the expected 10% swing move to the downside. 🎯 What an execution of our setup. Can’t say you weren’t warned. It's now pretty clear that macro support is the base low that bulls need to hold for any further uptrend continuation. The more touches we have to draw liquidity from that level, the more fragile it will be for support. Otherwise, the likely destination would be a move back to $480 for another test of the minor liquidity support. Not a single better $ZEC trader on CT. 🤟
Live
▼ bear
+21.8%
37d
May 27
$ETH
$ETH Sub-$2,000 is coming for ETH shortly. We’ve already seen a -20% correction from the range highs, and price is now completely outside the ascending channel. ETH/BTC is also locked in a large downtrend, which likely means ETH tests its range lows well before BTC does. https://t.co/OtsTa0zKr7
Live
▼ bear
+19.9%
37d
May 27
$BTC
$BTC The chart looks ready to sweep $74K. - 3 weeks of lower highs across multiple timeframes - 3 failed breakouts above $77.7K - Lost the $76.4K local support pivot I don't make the rules. https://t.co/PMWExEO3tv
Live
▼ bear
+20.5%
38d
May 26
$ZEC
$ZEC Things are getting interesting. Once again, we’ve seen the $680 region cap yet another rally. That’s twice in a week, and not dissimilar to what we saw in November, where $680-700 rejected multiple breakout attempts. And it’s now setting up for what is probably the most important structural test of the uptrend so far. Firstly, we’re testing the HTF trendline support, which has been holding this move since $300. On top of that, we’re retesting the prior local high at $600 in the exact same spot as the trendline, giving us a compound support setup. If that compound support is lost, the uptrend is going to be seriously tested. Given we now have two $680 rejection candles forming a potential double top, a loss of the trendline likely means testing the pattern neckline at $575, which would ultimately be the last line of defence. A loss of that would see macro support at $540 tested once again. That’s almost a potential -10% swing based on a few important structural variables. On the other hand, if ZEC can hold here and form its higher low pivot, we could potentially see an ascending triangle type formation develop, which would give us the continuation move above $680. ⌛️
Live
▼ bear
+25.5%
38d
May 26
$ZEC
$ZEC Still looking for continuation here. Structurally, this is still one of the best macro recovery charts in the market right now. Price has now completed a full V-shaped recovery back into the top of the local $680 range after reclaiming the entire corrective structure from the lows. That said, I still want to see the $700 resistance region properly cleared before getting too aggressive on continuation. But once that level breaks and confirms as support, I’m still targeting a move into the $740 region next. Unbelievable run so far.
Live
▲ bull
-36%
40d
May 24
$BTC
$BTC And there it is.. BTC fails to hold the important $75K support. See you back at the lows. 🤝 https://t.co/I6VHSDg8z8 https://t.co/9A5t0VhH1g
Live
▼ bear
+21.3%
41d
May 23
$SOL
$SOL One thing that continues standing out on SOL is how different the structure looks compared to BTC and ETH. While BTC and even ETH managed to build larger ascending structures off the February lows, SOL has spent the last 4 months trapped inside the same horizontal range without any real trend development. Ranging after a major breakdown is very different from trending after one. So far, every breakout attempt into the $98 region has been sold back into the middle of the range, while support around the high-$70s / low-$80s continues getting retested over and over again. The longer a market keeps repeatedly leaning on the same support without expanding upward, the more vulnerable it becomes if general market weakness starts accelerating. Especially for an asset like SOL, where positioning and beta tend to amplify the downside once momentum flips. So either this range is marking long-term accumulation, or it’s redistribution before another leg lower. Right now, I lean toward the second.
Win
▼ bear
+26.2%
42d
May 22
$ZEC
$ZEC What’s been interesting about the recovery back to $680 is that the move doesn’t really look retail-driven. Retail participation has mostly remained flat throughout the structure, while the majority of the buying has continued coming from mid-sized flows. At the same time, larger institutional-sized flows dropped during the correction, but have slowly started turning back upward. Interestingly, the low in institutional flows also lined up almost perfectly with the local low in price. That creates a very different backdrop from the type of euphoric breakout conditions people usually expect near reversals. So far, the move has looked more like sustained positioning coming back into the chart rather than a retail-led momentum chase. Now ZEC is attempting to reclaim the November high region after breaking above $640. If larger flows also start pushing back toward their prior highs above this region, then the probability of continuation higher starts increasing pretty quickly from there.
Live
▲ bull
-27.5%
42d
May 22
$BTC
$BTC $75K is starting to look a lot more interesting for BTC. The Bull Market Support Band is now sitting directly in that region, with the daily around $75.7K and the weekly near $75K. That lines up almost perfectly with current range support. Historically, during bear markets, BTC has not broken above the BMSB, lost it as support, then reclaimed directly into new highs. If BTC loses both range support and the BMSB in the same region, the next stop is likely the bottom trendline of the ascending channel around $72K. And if that trendline fails to hold, then we all know the endgame.
Live
▼ bear
+22.2%
43d
May 21
$ZEC
$ZEC.. and there’s your breakout. 🤟 $680. What a clean execution of the roadmap we laid out. $325 > $650 local high $650 > $485 liquidity retest $485 > $680 continuation expansion Ideally, price now uses the $640 region as support before attempting another expansion higher. As we’ve covered previously, $680 is a major macro resistance level that has rejected multiple breakout rallies over the last 6 months. But if ZEC manages to break above and hold this region, the next major target is likely an attempt at reclaiming the November highs around $750. What a run.
Live
▲ bull
-36.9%
44d
May 20
$ZEC
$ZEC There’s the move back into our marked $590-600 region. 🎯 We got the push we were looking for after price reclaimed and held the prior $560 lower high pivot as support. We've already rejected on the first attempt through, but as long as $560 continues holding, I’d still expect another attempt higher. That said, the actual breakout level is still sitting at $640, so I’m watching for whether this move rejects and sets the next macro lower high. But if ZEC does manage to reclaim $600 as support, the chart has the support it needs to push back toward the $640 range highs.
Live
▲ bull
-36.9%
44d
May 20
$ETH
$ETH Not exactly the type of structure you want to see before BTC has even fully broken down yet. ETH is now sitting on the edge of losing the ascending channel it has respected for the last 4 months, while BTC still remains above the midpoint of its own channel structure. This is exactly the relative weakness I’ve been talking about on ETHBTC, and now it’s starting to show up directly on the USD pair. Because if ETH is already struggling to hold structure before BTC has even tested the lower end of its range properly, it becomes difficult arguing that the worst of the downside is already behind it. To me, this still looks like a chart that eventually pushes into new cycle lows later this year. There will absolutely be a time where ETH becomes an attractive buy again for the next major expansion. But structurally, this still doesn’t look like the area to be trying to catch the knife.
Live
▼ bear
+23.9%
44d
May 20
$ZEC
$ZEC Price has now put in a successful compound breakout through both the descending trendline and the $540 macro resistance. We’ve also seen it close back above a prior lower high ($560) for the first time since this corrective structure began. Ideally, that pivot now holds as support and starts pushing price into the $590-600 overhead region. If it fails, then eyes go straight back to $540. That said, the cleanest risk/reward is still presented at either the break of the $640 highs, or a retest of $540 with invalidation (SL) below. Everything in between is likely to be chop. And since we could still see more consolidation before a clean breakout attempt, the better trade structure is to place longs at support rather than forcing one in the middle of the range. 🪬
Live
▲ bull
-26.2%
45d
May 19
$BTC
$BTC The next retest of $74-75K is likely going the most important test of this entire bear market. Not just because it’s current range support, but because of how much structural importance has built around that region over the last two years. First, it was the resistance that capped BTC throughout the 2024 broadening wedge before price finally broke out. Then in 2025, it became the retest where BTC formed the macro higher low that launched the move toward the cycle highs. And now in 2026, that same region is acting as support inside the current bear market range. That means $74K is carrying multiple layers of structural support at the same time. The prior breakout level. The macro higher low pivot. And the current bear market range support. All sitting in the same zone. If BTC manages to hold that region again, then the market still has a meaningful structural base underneath it to potentially stabilise and attempt to invalidate the downtrend. But if BTC loses it, then the entire support that pushed the move into the range highs starts breaking down with it. And structurally, that would likely expose the market to a much deeper rotation back toward the bear market lows.
Live
▼ bear
+21.6%
46d
May 18
$BTC
$BTC It’s only a matter of time before we retest the $75K range support. Book it. https://t.co/qT52B6uiEb https://t.co/3tD5hIoZQi
Live
▼ bear
+22.1%
47d
May 17
$ZEC
zcash:native Now moving toward the next key support levels at $484 and $450. Once again, losing the $540 macro support meant the downtrend was the path of least resistance. Beautiful short setup from the same distribution schematic we saw at the local top near $650. I call this a Type 2 Distribution. Price sets a high > loses a key support level ($540) to sweep liquidity > temporarily reclaims that support to sweep opposite-side liquidity and form the next lower high > continues the downtrend. These are the frameworks I’ve spent years building. They’re the reason we caught the move up, and the reason we’re catching the move back down. Happy printing. 🤝
Live
▼ bear
+17.1%
48d
May 16
$BTC
$BTC.. the signs were there. 🤟 Not exactly bullish when price loses support right after a bullish catalyst pushes it back above. Now, if we lose this trend support base, I’d expect the next downside hunts to start toward $77.7K. https://t.co/gjTpbNL0EQ https://t.co/pX6OH101Ad
Live
▼ bear
+23.7%
49d
May 15
$ETH
$ETH / $BTC As long as ETHBTC continues rejecting this descending trendline, I think there’s a high probability we eventually see $ETH print fresh cycle lows on its fiat pair. This week, we started to see ETHBTC break down from its descending triangle support, and it is now trading lower than where it was when BTC was sitting at $60K. So if the market rolls over again, ETH likely reaches new lows well before BTC ever revisits $60K. The key now is whether ETH can hold above the cycle low it set against BTC in April last year, which is the macro higher low on the chart. As long as that level holds, ETH can still form a macro higher low and reset for the next cycle.
Live
▼ bear
+27.2%
49d
May 15
$BTC
bitcoin:native Already back testing the $80.3K support it reclaimed off the Clarity Act catalyst. When price loses a level, reclaims it on news, then immediately starts pressing back into it, I usually treat that as a sign of weakness until proven otherwise. Especially when the reclaim was driven by a bullish catalyst. So far, BTC has used the catalyst to do one thing. Print another lower high inside the local range. Which is why I think this $80.3K retest is important. If we hold it, then there’s a possibility the reclaim has some structure behind it. But if we lose it again, it starts looking like a temporary squeeze before the next hunt to the downside. That said, for me, the $79K trend support is still the line in the sand on whether we see a deeper hunt within this range. That trend support has been the liquidity pivot for this entire move above $80K. If BTC loses it, I think the next phase is a deeper rotation back into the mid-$70Ks. ⌛️
Live
▼ bear
+23.7%
49d
May 15
$ZEC
$ZEC with a spring and reclaim of its macro support at $540. This is what we mentioned in yesterday’s post as the potential setup. Often, we'll see important macro support levels get deliberately violated by market makers and larger players to shake out trader positioning, take the liquidity sitting underneath, force reactions from both sides of the market, and then reclaim support before a structural breakdown can actually take place. That reclaim then traps the breakdown, forces shorts to cover, and turns late sellers into fuel for the move back above support. So far, that’s exactly what we’re seeing. Now it becomes extremely important that ZEC maintains acceptance back above $540 into the daily close. Otherwise, the spring setup gets invalidated and the chart likely continues its corrective phase lower.
Live
▲ bull
-24.4%
50d
May 14
$ZEC
$ZEC Has now lost its $540 macro support, which means this move up is at least temporarily finished unless price can quickly produce a spring action and reclaim that level. I’m not ruling that out yet, because markets will often sweep slightly beneath obvious macro support before front-running demand and reversing back above it. But if ZEC cannot reclaim $540, then the daily higher low likely forms lower, and the chart heads to deeper support levels. That makes $480 the first important minor support, with $450 sitting underneath as the next major macro support. Typically, we see a 40-60% mean reversion after large vertical expansions. $325 > $643 = a $318 move. And a 50% retracement would put price right near the $480 minor region. So unless ZEC can quickly reclaim $540 and close back above that macro pivot, the chart is still likely to enter a deeper correction into $450-480 support first before any continuation higher.
Live
▼ bear
+24.4%
50d
May 14
$BTC
$BTC.. and just like that. 🤟 Two-level breakdown setup to $79K complete. If price fails to hold this trend support, we’ll begin to see a move toward $77.7K next. https://t.co/QVte76eQD0 https://t.co/IlBbkLRdiQ
Live
▼ bear
+23.9%
51d
May 13
$ZEC
$ZEC We’re now consolidating and gathering liquidity at our expected $540 macro support for another breakout attempt. Roadmap so far has been executed to a tee. The first touch at support gave us a 10% rally back toward $600, but price still failed to reclaim the prior swing high and has now set its fourth consecutive lower high since the $650 top. To me, that confirms we’re still in consolidation and not yet ready for another attempt at the highs. This is a necessary phase, and the chart’s way of rebalancing liquidity after a near-vertical expansion. The key now is how many times this macro support gets tested. Each touch means more liquidity is being exchanged before another attempt higher. Ideally, we don’t want to see too many touches at such an important support, since repeated tests weaken the level. But as long as price stays above this pivot, the chart is still operating within a bullish trend.
Live
▲ bull
-19.2%
51d
May 13
$BTC
$BTC We’ve now seen the first rejection by price from the 200-day moving average, which currently sits just above $82K. In classical charting, the 200D SMA is used as a primary trend filter. When price is trading below it and the line is sloping down, the market is still structurally operating under bearish trend conditions. In previous bear markets, BTC has usually only managed brief moves to, or slightly above, this level before rejecting and eventually continuing its downtrend. The real technical change only comes when price can reclaim the 200D as support, hold above it, and force the moving average to flatten or turn back up. That would shift the indicator into a bullish trend condition. So far, that has not happened. The 200D is still sloping down, price is still trading beneath it, and the first interaction has been rejected. That said, because the 200D has been steadily lowering month over month, bulls may get another chance to reclaim it if price can hold this local structure and allow the moving average to compress lower into price.
Live
▼ bear
+23.9%
51d
May 13
$BTC
We’ve now seen the first rejection by price from the 200-day moving average, which currently sits just above $82K. In classical charting, the 200D SMA is used as a primary trend filter. When price is trading below it and the line is sloping down, the market is still structurally operating under bearish trend conditions. In previous bear markets, BTC has usually only managed brief moves to, or slightly above, this level before rejecting and eventually continuing its downtrend. The real technical change only comes when price can reclaim the 200D as support, hold above it, and force the moving average to flatten or turn back up. That would shift the indicator into a bullish trend condition. So far, that has not happened. The 200D is still sloping down, price is still trading beneath it, and the first interaction has been rejected. That said, because the 200D has been steadily lowering month over month, bulls may get another chance to reclaim it if price can hold this local structure and allow the moving average to compress lower into price.
Live
▼ bear
+23.9%
51d
May 13
$BTC
bitcoin:native We’ve now seen the first rejection from the 200-day moving average, which currently sits just above $82K. In classical charting, the 200D SMA is used as a primary trend filter. When price is trading below it and the line is sloping down, the market is still structurally operating under bearish trend conditions. In previous bear markets, BTC has usually only managed brief moves to, or slightly above, this level before rejecting and eventually continuing its downtrend. The real technical change only comes when price can reclaim the 200D as support, hold above it, and force the moving average to flatten or turn back up. That would shift the indicator into a bullish trend condition. So far, that has not happened. The 200D is still sloping down, price is still trading beneath it, and the first interaction has been rejected. That said, because the 200D has been steadily lowering month over month, bulls may get another chance to reclaim it if price can hold this local structure and allow the moving average to compress lower into price.
Live
▼ bear
+23.9%
51d
May 13
$BTC
$BTC If price doesn’t form another higher low pivot here and push back up, it’s going to have an important test at $80.5K very shortly, where the trendline support, horizontal support, and prior higher low all meet. So far, price is still defending its higher lows, but each bounce within this range has been rejected lower against the falling trendline, which is now giving us a bit of a wedge structure. As long as BTC holds above the green box and forms another higher low, we can stay relatively optimistic that the structure holds and price gets another attempt at continuation. If it loses the wedge support, horizontal level, and prior higher low pivot together, then the structure shifts into a breakdown setup. In that scenario, I’d be looking for an initial move back toward $79K, before assessing whether that trend support can prevent a larger flush lower.
Live
▲ bull
-25.1%
52d
May 12
$ZEC
$ZEC Now in a clear phase of consolidation after the move into $650. We’re seeing a specific distribution schematic take place here, where price sets a high, follows it with a minor lower high, then loses minor low support to sweep liquidity before temporarily reclaiming to form the next lower high. This was the first loss of a higher low pivot since the move from $325, so if this wick low is lost, price is going to head back toward the macro support at $535-$550 to gather liquidity for another breakout attempt. Price basically 2x’d without any real pullback, so this distribution schematic is expected and still considered healthy within the broader uptrend. If macro support is lost, on the other hand, we’ll see a much deeper pullback.
Live
▲ bull
-24%
53d
May 11
$ZEC
$ZEC breakout continuation after completing its bull pennant. $625 so far. Our roadmap has played out flawlessly. Now, all eyes on the big boy resistance at $680. Happy printing. 🤟 https://t.co/ZFi2U2689P https://t.co/EZomJ19fwS
Live
▲ bull
-30.9%
56d
May 8
$ZEC
$ZEC Once again, we're seeing institutional-sized wallets driving this move into the latest highs at ~$610. Retail and mid-sized wallets have been active throughout the rally, but the real shift has come from institutional flow, which has now flipped from red and pushed aggressively above its prior resistance range. For most of the last six months, institutional volume acted as a ceiling during rallies. Every upside attempt into resistance was heavily sold into by that particular group. That has now started to transition back into the green. Institutional flow is hitting new highs while price consolidates near macro highs, which is exactly what you want to see if this trend is going to continue higher after such an aggressive move up. The relationship between price and that cohort has been very parallel. As long as it maintains this spike, we should continue to see trend continuation.
Live
▲ bull
-30.9%
56d
May 8
$ZEC
$ZEC We're now seeing the first pullback after the expansion into ~$610. So far, price is finding support right at the ~$540 macro higher low from December last year. If the trend is still strong, this level should hold as support and eventually push price above the local high, with $680 the next clear target in sight. That said, with such a steep ascent, it’s unlikely this trendline remains sustainable without some consolidation. What I’m watching now is whether price creates a shortfall before reaching $610 again. If we start seeing a lack of follow-through back into that region, it likely means a local lower high is forming, and the chart is due for a reversion lower to gather more liquidity before the next move up. The most likely reversion area, especially if there is a bigger market correction, is the $440–$460 liquidity zone. However, until $540 support is lost, I’ll be holding longs for the potential continuation move, especially since we entered much lower with zero risk exposure at any of the mentioned levels.
Live
▲ bull
-26%
57d
May 7
$BTC
$BTC So far, the long trade plan here has not changed. We're now at $82K and nearing our target. We've begun to see price break out of its ascending channel and position for an underside test of the prior range around $84K. This is a key supply area on the chart, so I’ll be exiting a large portion of the position until we get confirmation of acceptance back inside that prior range. We’ve had almost six weeks of straight upside, so unless there is strong relative strength to keep this steep trendline intact, it makes sense to take profit into key resistance and reassess how price will manage a break above. If we do enter the prior range, I’ll begin hedging by scaling into shorts, since the invalidation for my macro bear thesis is triggered on a break above the prior distribution range. Overall, my macro position does not change until my levels are taken out. 🎲
Live
▲ bull
-25.9%
58d
May 6
$ZEC
$ZEC now with a HUGE short squeeze into $550. What an insane daily candle. +25% on the day. $550 is the macro lower-high resistance area that stopped the prior breakout attempt in December. It will take some work to get through this region, but once it does, it should be fireworks. 🤟
Live
▲ bull
-18%
59d
May 5
$ZEC
$ZEC What a move. $447 reached with precision. Target hit. 🎯 We’re now seeing price push into the $470 area. As mentioned yesterday, I’m looking for an initial rejection here to set a higher low, so I’ve closed a portion of profits while still holding a relatively large unrealised PnL. Alternatively, if it pushes through this level on the first attempt, $490 should be tested on the next rally. The base case is still continuation until a support level is lost and the trend changes. We’ve executed this perfectly so far. Another winning Zcash trade. 🤟
Live
▲ bull
-18%
59d
May 5
$ETH
$ETH So far in this market rally, ETH has shown a clear “shortfall,” meaning it has failed to reach the upper boundary of its channel, which currently sits around $2,520. Each push higher has been capped at ~$2,420, leaving it roughly 6% short of its channel high, while BTC has already reached the top side of its own channel structure at $81K. ETH/BTC is also testing a key lower-timeframe support level, which means if that support breaks, a continuation rally from Bitcoin likely means a weak move from ETH. Unless it finally pushes through $2,420 and holds it as support, the rule of “relative strength” comes into play: The asset that underperforms during market strength will underperform even harder during market weakness.
Live
▼ bear
+31.4%
59d
May 5
$ZEC
$ZEC continuation move loading.. Cleared our $417 target, and now on the way to $447 for a test. Most likely scenario is a rejection on the first attempt to form a higher low pivot. ⌛️ https://t.co/onShTTloIG https://t.co/FUBVBdnS7j
Live
▲ bull
+0%
60d
May 4
$BTC
$BTC So far, we’re retesting the breakout liquidity around $79.6K after pushing through $80K. Highest-probability scenario is still continuation, unless this pivot is lost. If it loses it, the breakout becomes an upthrust / failed expansion, which is a bearish technical setup and increases the likelihood of a move back down. That would be the short trigger. Until then, there’s no real reason to stand in front of the move before it trades into the higher macro supply area around $84K. For now, the asymmetric trade setup is a long toward that region, with invalidation below the breakout point.
Live
▲ bull
-24.5%
60d
May 4
$ZEC
I remain undefeated on zcash:native. Straight to our target at $405. 🤟 Big continuation move coming if it can push past this wick sweep pivot.. 😉 https://t.co/OeVApAvoNU https://t.co/la3zKfeoqV
Live
▲ bull
+2.6%
61d
May 3
$ZEC
$ZEC.. what did I tell you? 😉 Sweeping local highs at $395, and looking like it wants continuation too. Once it clears $405, we should see it move again. https://t.co/nwS94lrfWT https://t.co/dls3kNiHxO
Win
▲ bull
+74.3%
63d
May 1
$ZEC
$ZEC Still holding above the pivotal $315–330 macro pivot, with a clear series of higher lows forming during this expansion. The move from $250 has been slowly compressing into a symmetrical triangle formation, which usually means continuation is the most likely scenario. As long as $315–330 holds, I support the probability of that happening. We have higher low pivots which sit right on this support, and that gives the thesis a very tight invalidation. Price would still need to close above $375 to confirm continuation, but once it does, it would push to take out the ~$405 wick.
Win
▲ bull
+74.3%
63d
May 1
$BTC
$BTC Lower high structure still forming on the LTF. We're going to sweep the $74.8K local low if we fail to reclaim and hold above the $76.4K dual resistance over the next few closes. https://t.co/ygvKUYNB4J
Live
▼ bear
+21%
64d
Apr 30
$BTC
$BTC Today is Day 30, and once again we’re closing the month green after holding above the monthly open on Day 15. This now makes it 11 of the last 13 months where price was either above or below the monthly open on Day 15, and then closed in that same direction by month end. Once the market engineers a narrative halfway through the month, the rest of the month usually trades in that same direction. Day 15 set the monthly close bias to green, and the candle closed exactly that way. This now also gives us two consecutive green monthly candles. And as mentioned in the prior post, BTC has never printed three successive green monthly candles in a bear market. That, combined with the typical post‑FOMC sell‑off, likely means the narrative going into May starts bearish.. 😉
Live
▼ bear
+21%
64d
Apr 30
$ETH
The best time to accumulate $ETH during bear markets has been each time the MVRV Z-Score has dropped below -0.5, just below the green band. MVRV-Z statistically measures how stretched ETH’s market value is relative to its on-chain cost basis. Below zero means the average holder is underwater. Below -0.5 means there is deep capitulation. We're currently sitting at -0.1 at ~$2,300. For context, the capitulation low to $1,800 in February was -0.51, so a revisit there puts us back on the edge of that band. Once the Z-Score breaks below -0.5 and pushes toward -0.75, that's where it makes sense to start sizing on. Front-running this marker has cost retail 30%+ in every prior cycle. I'm betting we make another visit the lows before I start any accumulation.
Live
▼ bear
+28.1%
65d
Apr 29
$BTC
We've seen $BTC sell off hard in the week that followed 8 of the last 9 FOMC meetings. I see no reason this time will be different. 1 out of 9 is not exactly the kind of odds anyone should be interested in betting on. What we have consistently seen after these meetings is an average drop of 11% in the 7 days post‑FOMC, which would put price back near the $70K region over the next week if it repeats. Based on the last month of price action, I don’t believe bulls will just let structure fold that easily. However, the recent bullish environment has dragged a lot of optimistic positioning in, so it shouldn't be a surprise to anyone that it's getting sold into Ultimately that's what these environments are engineered for. Overall, once the meeting is out of the way, the price action has typically resolved lower within the first 7 days. Probabilities say it happens again.
Live
▼ bear
+20.4%
65d
Apr 29
$BTC
bitcoin:native Weakness is beginning to show on this move. We’ve lost the two-level support of the trendline and the $77.3K liquidity zone. We’re also now seeing Coinbase Premium flash consecutive red readings for the first time in 3 weeks, since $67K. This entire move has been riding in direct correlation with US spot demand, and the trendline has acted as the technical support for that demand. This could be derisking price action into FOMC over the next 48 hours, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see scam wicks in both directions because of the meeting. But there is little doubt this uptrend is entering its latter stages. Once $74.5K-$75.5K is lost, it’s over.
Live
▼ bear
+21%
66d
Apr 28
$BTC
$BTC This is an area of importance this uptrend. Price is sitting on two levels of support right now, consisting of the trendline and the $77.3K liquidity zone. The trendline has held this entire move together since $65K, so that is especially vital to watch. Every meaningful rally since the lows has come from a liquidity zone being tested directly on that trendline. If this area holds, the rally structure remains intact and the move can keep building. If it loses this level, it would be the first real trendline break of the entire move from $65K. That is where I’d expect price to flush into deeper liquidity pockets below.
Live
▲ bull
-22.1%
67d
Apr 27
$ETH
$ETH continues to reject deeply on every test of its Bear Market Resistance Band, currently sitting around $2450. Historically, ETH has never held above it during bear markets. Not in 2018. Not in 2022, apart from a brief fakeout above the band before rejecting again. The only time it has broken above this band and accepted there for an extended period was after the cycle bottom was already in. If BTC reclaims 80K, I'd expect ETH to follow the same playbook as last cycle. A push above the band into the $2600 region before the real test begins.
Live
▲ bull
-30.1%
70d
Apr 24
$BTC
$BTC We have several hundred million in short exposure stacked just above the 79.5K local high, around 79.9K. That's the max pain zone for bears. Months of positioning compressed into one dense liquidation band. If this green support zone holds as the retest, market makers have every incentive to sweep it and clear those orders within the next few moves. Shorts will be forced to cover on the way up. Buybacks will compound the move. 80K gets taken. Months of liquidity sitting 2% from price will rarely stay untouched.
Live
▲ bull
-22.1%
70d
Apr 24
$BTC
$BTC You can always tell who has never studied a bear market by how quickly they start celebrating a relief rally as the bottom. Last cycle, this exact phase rallied nearly 50% back into the prior distribution, spent weeks trying to hold acceptance there, and then rolled over to set the macro lower high before dumping 65%. That is what a bear market rally is meant to do. It is the mechanism through which lower highs get built. Right now, we are not even back inside that prior distribution zone (84K), and a 3% push above resistance is enough for the same crowd to start calling a bottom again. Notice how it’s mostly the same accounts who have been calling the bottom since November. Let them celebrate early. Time will reveal all. 🤟
Live
▼ bear
+23%
71d
Apr 23
$BTC
$BTC This is the path for BTC as this move develops. Right now, we are seeing price test support at the breakout pivot, which has flipped into liquidity support for continuation up. What we’ve seen throughout this range is repeated testing of deeper liquidity before each rally. Every meaningful move in this has come from a trendline test paired with an established liquidity zone. If price can hold this recent breakout pivot, it would mean the momentum behind the uptrend is strong and we likely see continuation up over the next few days. However, based on how price has behaved around these intersecting liquidity points in this range, the more likely retest is still the $75.5K-76K liquidity pivot before another attempt higher. Both outcomes are healthy and normal for this type of local move. What I’m watching is whether price needs to move even lower first to find the liquidity required for another breakout attempt. That would be the bearish scenario, and would signal there is still heavy distribution in this pocket which needs to be met with deeper force of liquidity to maintain the trend. It would also mean losing the trendline which has kept this uptrend intact since 65K. Price will follow one of these paths. Enjoy the show. 🤝
Live
▲ bull
-23%
71d
Apr 23
$BTC
bitcoin:native This is the path for BTC as this move develops. Right now, we are seeing price test support at the breakout pivot, which has flipped into liquidity support for continuation up. What we’ve seen throughout this range is repeated testing of deeper liquidity before each rally. Every meaningful move in this has come from a trendline test paired with an established liquidity zone. If price can hold this recent breakout pivot, it would mean the momentum behind the uptrend is strong and we likely see continuation up over the next few days. However, based on how price has behaved around these intersecting liquidity points in this range, the more likely retest is still the $75.5K-76K liquidity pivot before another attempt higher. Both outcomes are healthy and normal for this type of local move. What I’m watching is whether price needs to move even lower first to find the liquidity required for another breakout attempt. That would be the bearish scenario, and would signal there is still heavy distribution in this pocket which needs to be met with deeper force of liquidity to maintain the trend. It would also mean losing the trendline which has kept this uptrend intact since 65K. Price will follow one of these paths. Enjoy the show. 🤝
Live
▲ bull
-23%
71d
Apr 23
$BTC
$BTC This ratio is telling me we likely get one more "panic" leg before the cycle bottoms. It’s one of the most important charts I’m tracking right now. (USDT.D + USDC.D) / BTC.D All three are dominance metrics, but combined they provide high-quality signals I use to assess cycle structure. They show whether the market is leaning more toward preservation or toward Bitcoin exposure. When this ratio rises, stablecoins are taking up more of the market than BTC. That usually means capital is becoming more defensive and rotating away from risk. When this ratio falls, BTC is taking that share back from stablecoins. That tells you capital is rotating back toward BTC, while BTC dominance decides whether that strength stays concentrated there or starts spreading into alts. Last cycle, this ratio mapped the whole transition perfectly. In 2020, it stayed low while risk was fully deployed. Into the 2021 top, it moved into the distribution band. In 2022, it spiked into panic, pulled back during relief rallies, then made a second harder drive that marked the real bottoming process. And then repeats. Percentage-wise, we are back in that same late-stage zone. BTC dominance is high. Stablecoin dominance is high. And this ratio is sitting where distribution lived last cycle. I think it makes one final push into panic before the reset is complete.
Live
▼ bear
+21%
73d
Apr 21
$BTC
$BTC will sweep the liquidity at $78K if this daily candle can close above $76K, which is now local resistance and the prior breakout pivot. Yesterday’s daily close back below support is acting like a liquidity spring / clearout candle, which typically signals that a move back up is coming.
Live
▲ bull
-20.5%
74d
Apr 20
$BTC
$BTC retesting $75K support here is not bearish. The retest of support is the most important part of confirming a breakout. It is the chart’s way of proving whether prior resistance can now act as support, while also rebalancing order flow before continuation. What would be bearish is if this $75K liquidity support fails and price is pushed back deeper into the same range it just spent three months trying to break out of. If it has to go that deep just to find liquidity for continuation, the breakout lacks momentum. The deeper the retrace, the weaker the move. Just don’t lose $75K.
Live
▲ bull
-18.3%
75d
Apr 19
$BTC
$BTC is getting ready to move. As mentioned previously, I’ll be looking for scalp longs once price clears the liquidity sitting just above $76K. There is two and a half months of coiled liquidity behind this range, and we’re already seeing wicks above resistance as short positioning gets cleared. The trendline is also supporting a move higher. If the breakout confirms, the first area I’m watching for a reaction is $77.7K. Above that, I’ll be watching for a move into the $79.5K region for an underside test of the next major resistance.
Live
▲ bull
-21.8%
77d
Apr 17
$BTC
$BTC Today is Day 15 and price is sitting ~9% above the monthly open. In bear markets, when BTC is above its open by Day 15, the month has successfully closed green 77% of the time. 10 of the last 12 months have respected that pattern perfectly. That means $68K (MO) is unlikely to be broken this month. You might get a wick or two, but a clean breakdown of this range in April is extremely low‑probability. It also sets up another interesting development.. A green April would give you two consecutive green monthly candles, and BTC has never printed three in a row in any prior bear market. So my base case is simple. April closes green. May closes red. 😉
Live
▼ bear
+19.4%
79d
Apr 15
$BTC
$BTC Today is Day 15 and price is sitting ~9% above the monthly open. In bear markets, when BTC is above its open by Day 15, the month has successfully closed green 77% of the time. 10 of the last 12 months have respected that pattern perfectly. That means $68K (MO) is unlikely to be broken this month. You might get a wick or two, but a clean breakdown of this range in April is extremely low‑probability. It also sets up another interesting development.. A green April would give you two consecutive green monthly candles, and BTC has never printed three in a row in any prior bear market. So my base case is simple. April closes green. May closes red. 😉
Live
▲ bull
-19.4%
79d
Apr 15
$BTC
$BTC I’m looking for where this BTC rally is most likely to top out. In each of the last two cycles, this exact phase of the rally pushed into the same band on my composite wave model and marked each bear market lower high with absolute precision. Both times, price cleared the external bands, stretched into the mid-orange wave, and the rally was effectively over. Now we are back in a very similar setup. That same band is clustering around $79K, and price is pushing into it again while the wave is beginning to build in the same way it did in prior cycles. In my backtesting of those periods, both cycles also printed an upthrust above the orange composite band before closing back beneath it and rejecting. In this model, that upthrust projects to roughly $81K. So if the $76K resistance breaks, that is the area this model is pointing toward. It has been one of the most reliable cycle tools I’ve built over the years. It has not missed a bear market lower high yet, and I have no reason to treat this time differently. #Bitcoin
Live
▼ bear
+19.4%
79d
Apr 15
$BTC
$BTC cleaned out a chunk of trapped liquidity with the move into $76K. Anxious month-old positioning is now off the board. If bulls can hold the local support at $72K, the chart is going to get another move up. https://t.co/llJaT9ekC3 https://t.co/Vv2IIuKtaK
Live
▲ bull
-18.7%
80d
Apr 14
$ETH
$ETH looks far more ready to break out than $BTC right now. Currently testing the range highs of this ascending triangle, and back above the 100EMA for the first time since $3400. $2480 coming next on confirmation of the breakout. https://t.co/vLptS11x29
Live
▲ bull
-30.3%
80d
Apr 14
$BTC
Once $BTC clears this trapped liquidity around $76K that’s been sitting there since early March, it should reach toward the liquidity pocket around $77.5–79.3K for its next test of key resistance. I’ll be hunting scalp longs into that breakout, with tight invalidation just below the reclaim level. I’m only interested if price can flip that $76K zone from supply into support. That $76K area is where late shorts have been leaning in and early breakout buyers got shredded. If price can punch through that supply and accept above it, the path of least resistance is a squeeze up.
Live
▲ bull
-18.7%
80d
Apr 14
$BTC
Couple hundred million in short liquidations incoming. $BTC https://t.co/zIEAftTcfF https://t.co/YzqPPhnCLu
Live
▲ bull
-19%
81d
Apr 13
$TAO
$TAO will get a retest of the lost support levels which now act as resistance. $283 + $294 are the areas of interest I'm watching for the test. If price can rip back through and reclaim that red support zone, then the liquidity at these "cheap" levels would function as a spring for a higher move. My guess is: it rallies back into that $283–294 pocket, fails to hold above it, and rolls over to set a lower high. 👁️
Loss
▼ bear
-24.5%
84d
Apr 10
$ZEC
I've been watching the transfer of contracts on $ZEC on this move up, and that paired with rising open interest is one of the main reasons this run up has been explosive. When transfer of contracts spikes, it means a meaningful amount of perp size actually changed hands at those prices. Traders being forced in or out of positions at a premium markup. Most of the time when that metric spikes, open interest is flat or dropping. Positions are closing. Shorts getting carried out, longs capitulating. Great for a squeeze, but not something that gives me confidence for continuation. What's occurring here is different. Transfer of contracts peaked near the highs around $390 and open interest climbed from roughly $200M to $300M with price. Fresh size is stepping in behind the breakout and holding. As long as that relationship holds (elevated transfer of contracts with OI climbing behind it) I’ll keep looking for continuation rather than assuming every spike is the top of a potential squeeze.
Win
▲ bull
+79%
84d
Apr 10
$BTC
When $BTC sweeps either of these wicks, that’s where "max pain" sits inside this range. Tag the top wick a round 74.9K and the chart clears $135M of short‑side liquidations. Tag the bottom wick near 66.2K and there’s $90M in long‑side liquidations waiting. If it plays out anything like 2022, odds are the topside gets taken first, then we reverse and clean up the bottom of the range.
Win
▲ bull
+14.5%
85d
Apr 9
$ZEC
And there's $ZEC with a huge macro breakout. 🎯 Up +50% in a few days and now hunting liquidity at the $401 wick. You're welcome. 🤟 https://t.co/16BPVAptTe https://t.co/ktw3AiNj0l
Win
▲ bull
+82.2%
85d
Apr 9
$BTC
I’ve watched $BTC do the same thing for over a decade and most people still think this time is different. 2013 topped 367 days after the first halving. 2017 topped 526 days after the second. 2021 topped 547 days after the third. 2025 topped 550 days after the fourth. 2015 bottomed 25 months after the 2013 top. 2018: 29 months after the 2017 top. 2022: 25 months after the 2021 top. Run that forward and the math spits out the same answer this time: 25–30 months after the October 2025 top puts the next bottom somewhere between May and October 2026. If that clock is wrong, this will be the first time in Bitcoin’s history. I’m willing to back something with a 100% track record. Even if it means being on the wrong side for the first time ever. But the crowd is betting that the only thing that has never missed… suddenly will, for the first time ever. Pick your poison. 😉
Loss
▼ bear
-14.5%
85d
Apr 9
$ZEC
Institutional‑sized wallets on $ZEC have been one of my main indicators all cycle. Every time Zcash has rallied this year, retail and mid‑size wallets did the heavy lifting while institutional volume delta slammed into that purple band. I treated that line as the ceiling. As long as they were flashing red and capped, every pump to me looked like a VWAP distribution. For the first time since the 2025 highs, that has started to shift. Institutional delta finally punched through its own cap and is ripping out the top of that purple box while price pushes into macro resistance. For the first time this year, retail, mid‑size, and institutional-size are all pointing the same way. As long as that institutional line holds above the box and keeps climbing, I'll treat this range as sponsored and I’m willing to continue my long risk into continuation setups. That is what worked all through the run up to the $750 highs. If it slips back inside and rolls over, this candle likely becomes the final distribution spike and I go straight back to fading.
Win
▲ bull
+82.2%
85d
Apr 9
$ZEC
This is by far the most important price action $ZEC has seen all year. We’re right back into that macro S/R band at $330 that has decided every major move on this chart, and this time it’s colliding with the 200‑day which is the main trend filter. That makes this an important flip. When price lives below that combo, I treat everything as a bear market rally. When it can flip both and actually hold, it becomes much more technically interesting to trade. If ZEC can reclaim this block cleanly without some obvious upthrust and instant rug, that wick at ~$401 becomes the next target I'd expect to get hunted.
Win
▲ bull
+107.8%
86d
Apr 8
$TAO
$TAO attempting breakout continuation after putting in a curved accumulation phase. Volume is now printing the highest reading since the original move to the upside. As long as $330 continues to hold, I expect this to work its way back into the $365–375 region for the next breakout attempt. Loading..⌛️
Loss
▲ bull
-42.3%
87d
Apr 7
$ZEC
$ZEC Two-level breakout setting up on Zcash. Price is now pushing into the red horizontal supply area around $270 after breaking above the descending trendline that has capped every rally since January. A close through this zone would be a two-for-one breakout of both the horizontal resistance and the trendline, which makes it twice as important. It's also trading back above the daily 50EMA (blue) for the first time since losing it near $460. This is the first real confluence of momentum this chart has shown all year. If the breakout confirms, an attempt at $300 comes next. 👁️
Win
▲ bull
+109.9%
87d
Apr 7
$BTC
Most traders still cannot tell whether this $BTC range is redistribution or accumulation. Yet all I see are the internal mechanisms of a redistribution schematic. Let me explain. When I talk about re-accumulation, I am looking for a range that wants to launch. It usually presses lower highs early while the lows are defended on command, then delivers a shakeout below support that marks the low before expansion. When I talk about redistribution, I am looking for a range that wants to distribute slowly. It often begins with higher lows, then turns the top of the range into a hunting ground. The same highs get swept again and again until the final upthrust exhausts buyers and the trapdoor opens. Bitcoin’s February range printed four consecutive lower highs into the ceiling. Since the March sweep, the new internal range has added three more lower highs on top of that. The lows are holding just well enough to keep people optimistic. The highs keep stepping down just aggressively enough to keep them trapped. This is not a neutral range. It is a range doing a specific job. "Redistributing to the hopeful."
Loss
▼ bear
-14.2%
87d
Apr 7
$BTC
$BTC There's a metric I track that has lined up with every single Bitcoin cycle bottom without exception. Long-Term Holder Supply in Loss. At the 2015 bottom: 53% of LTH supply was underwater. At the 2018 bottom: 45% underwater. At the 2022 bottom: 44% underwater. Every peak in that metric coincided with the cycle bottom. The current reading is 29% and steadily climbing. This tells me we are not at the bottom yet, but we are building toward the conditions where bottoms form. The pattern has never failed and I have no reason to believe this cycle is different.
Loss
▼ bear
-14.2%
87d
Apr 7
$BTC
Now that is a heavy long-liquidation node waiting to get taken on $BTC. Look how close it is to price. Yes, it has been acting as support, but the problem is that the more times support gets used, the weaker it usually becomes. At some point, the market stops bouncing from it and starts ripping straight through it. If that liquidity shelf gives way, I would not expect a slow move lower. I would expect a hard liquidation flush. ⌛️
Loss
▼ bear
-22.8%
92d
Apr 2
$BTC
$BTC I've been pointing at this range divergence for weeks. When price grinds higher and Open Interest drops during an intermediate range, no meaningful new money is entering the market to sustain a rally. The moves in this range are shorts covering their squeeze. Not fresh longs being built. It's what we call "mechanical pressure". Their forced buying is doing the heavy lifting. Whale Delta has also been persistently red since December. Large players are not on the buy side of this move. They have been heavy on the sell side for 95% of this range. Both of these things are true at the same time. Yet price is still up when neither metric supports it. Unfortunately for bulls, short covering has a limit. Once the last trapped short closes, that fuel is gone. Price then has to answer a simple question. Are there real buyers here or not? Right now the chart is telling me there aren't. Until OI harmonically expands with price, this range is destined for another move down.
Loss
▼ bear
-22.8%
92d
Apr 2
$BTC
$BTC Looks like our Day 15 setup is about to be right again. When BTC is above its monthly open by Day 15, the month has historically gone on to close green 77.6% of the time. Even in bear markets, that still holds 66.7% of the time. March spent the second half of the month fading hard enough to make that read unpredictable, but with BTC now back above the monthly open into the close, it is lining up with the historical tendency once again. That is the point of a stat like this. Not to predict a clean path, but to frame the higher-probability monthly outcome while the market is unpredictable.
Win
▲ bull
+20.4%
94d
Mar 31
$BTC
$BTC A lot of people looked at that February candle and decided $60K was the bottom because the sell volume looked climactic. That is the wrong conclusion. A Selling Climax is not the same thing as a confirmed bear market low. What it usually tells you is that the market has reached a point of emotional exhaustion where a violent reaction becomes likely. That can produce a strong bounce. It does not automatically mean the full bear market process is over. The best comparison on this chart is June 2022. That candle also printed huge capitulation volume. At the time, people treated it the same way. Final flush, final pain, final low.. But it wasn’t. BTC bounced hard after that event, then still went on to make a new low months later at $15K. That is why this distinction of what a Selling Climax is matters. A Selling Climax is an event inside a bearish process. It is not, by itself, proof that the entire process is finished. So yes, the reaction off $60K made sense. What does not make sense is pretending one climactic candle is enough on its own to prove the macro bottom is in. There's more pain still to come.
Loss
▼ bear
-20.4%
94d
Mar 31
$BTC
$BTC Distribution Range 2 continues to do what ranges like this always do. It swept the latest minor low. That part is done. In a range like this, price rarely just sits still at support and politely reverses. It usually needs to take the nearby liquidity first, force a reaction, and then show whether there is enough strength to rotate back the other way. If BTC can stabilise here and start building, then the next obvious draw is the $71K minor high sitting above. That is how these structures keep moving. 1. First they take the weak lows 2. Then they force people to react 3. Then they decide whether there is enough fuel to rotate back and run the opposite side So the latest minor low has been claimed. Now we wait and see if BTC has enough left to go and test the $71K liquidity next.
Win
▲ bull
+23.2%
95d
Mar 30
$TAO
$TAO trying to form a Tower Bottom here for a retest of the highs. Multiple doji candles have started forming right at our marked liquidity retest zone, while the 12EMA is also catching up with price. If bulls are going to hold this structure and push for another move higher, this is the area where the chart should start responding.
Loss
▲ bull
-37.7%
95d
Mar 30
$TAO
$TAO This retest is doing exactly what a healthy breakout should do. Price is recycling liquidity above the breakout level instead of giving the whole move back, which keeps bulls positioned for another push into the $380 overhead. As long as that breakout level keeps holding, the chart remains healthy. The 12EMA (blue) has been the trend support all the way from $180, so if price loses that and the breakout level together, that will be the first sign that the uptrend starts is exhausted.
Loss
▲ bull
-38.6%
97d
Mar 28
$BTC
$BTC The market already had its chance to prove this range was recovery. Price spent weeks stabilising, basing, and giving everyone enough time to build the bullish case. Then came the only question that mattered. Could it reclaim with authority? Could it turn balance into strength? Could it leave the range behind? No. Instead, the bounce ran out of road, rolled over, and handed control straight back to sellers. That is usually how weak structure behaves. Failing over and over again to do anything constructive when it has the chance. 🏳️
Loss
▼ bear
-23.9%
97d
Mar 28
$BTC
And there's the two-level breakdown for $BTC. 💰 Now testing $66K which has been the main range support over the last 2 months. If it loses here, chart is going to be hunting some thick liquidity stops below. https://t.co/YEIIKRZWeA https://t.co/rR1wmufZTI
Loss
▼ bear
-23.8%
98d
Mar 27
$BTC
$BTC with a fresh two-level breakdown mark at $67.3K. Price is sitting on two supports at once: > the rising trendline, and > the horizontal support around the same area. If the chart loses two layers of structure at once, it would likely indicate a sweep of the lows. https://t.co/RW6FSxccyl
Loss
▼ bear
-19.4%
99d
Mar 26
$TAO
$TAO Bang, there’s the move to $365. 🎯 Like a rocket over the last 24 hours. Almost +25% in that period. This was always the first major overhead area of the breakout, so some reaction here would be completely normal. It would actually be cleaner if price did not rip straight through here on the first attempt. The healthier outcome here is holding the prior resistance zone as support, consolidating above it, and building enough liquidity for another push into the overhead. That is how strong breakouts stay strong. Not by going vertical forever, but by proving they can absorb supply without giving back the whole move. Keep on printing. 🤝
Loss
▲ bull
-44.1%
100d
Mar 25
