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@BobLoukas
@BobLoukas
VERIFIED
Bob Loukas 🗽
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Position trader
Market cycles
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Precious metals
Macro
When right vs when wrong
Average return when a call wins vs loses — and how long each takes.
When right
+77%
peaks in
~193d
·
200
wins
When wrong
-31%
fades in
~101d
·
170
losses
Track record
Every scored call. Open any row to see the post and how it stacked up against his usual.
All
100
Wins
48
Losses
41
Live
11
Call
Post
State
Dir
Return
Days
Posted
▼
$ADA
$ADA and many other such projects (Like AVAX, DOT like prior cycle coins) are finally in terminal death decline phases. Taking out their prior 4yr cycle lows = 💀 https://t.co/zm2p9qifus https://t.co/1BWk0W5ydb
Live
▼ bear
+0.5%
28d
Jun 5
$GC
18 weeks since the gold blow-off, gold is going through a normal rebasing period. Speculative interest moved on 12-18 weeks ago. But this is remains a secular bull market, so we're looking at reaccumulation of long positions from underweight to overweight over the coming 4 months. The bull goes again in 2027.
Live
▲ bull
-8.7%
29d
Jun 4
$SPY
Day 8 of the Daily Cycle for stocks, this was the easy or expected move. My main view remains it will struggle up in this area, and eventually roll back over. https://t.co/PbvH8ZAXD7 https://t.co/OzCWWRvKB9
Live
▼ bear
-9%
81d
Apr 13
$SPY
Looks like the Daily cycle low is not in. Very bear market like behavior. #Stocks And 3 days left on the monthly, clearly showing the 4 yr Cycle top in development.
Live
▼ bear
-17.9%
98d
Mar 27
$SPY
3 weeks later, a failed weekly cycle for stocks today. Going to be an interesting weekend report (Financial Tap). https://t.co/26updFwAUG https://t.co/Qd9yiWlA8O
Live
▼ bear
-15.3%
105d
Mar 20
$SPY
3 weeks later, a failed weekly cycle for stocks today. https://t.co/TSMPFL7v0P https://t.co/Qd9yiWlA8O
Live
▼ bear
-15.3%
105d
Mar 20
$SPY
Stocks are in the early stages of a cyclical bear market. October timeframe lows.
Live
▼ bear
-13.6%
106d
Mar 19
$DXY
Only week 6 and the dollar made a 10-month high. More importantly, a higher high on the Cycle front. Confluence with signs off a risk off environment ahead. https://t.co/yBTC6XgbwW
Win
▲ bull
+53%
112d
Mar 13
$GC
Gold is still tremendously strong. This is technically the declining phase of the weekly cycle. Once again, like the last two cycles, refusing to give back ground. https://t.co/73ZMsbzERc
Live
▲ bull
-19.1%
112d
Mar 13
$SPY
Stocks are approaching the 2nd Daily Cycle Low, timing is mid next week. But the damage is done. The next Daily Cycle (last of the weekly) is where the pain would come from. Weakness into mid may. https://t.co/dzH4wfgXWT
Live
▼ bear
-13.2%
112d
Mar 13
$SPY
I believe there is a good chance that Stocks have peaked for its 4 Year Cycle. Last week my 'active' portfolios went into more defensive positions, cash to 33%. Further selling to come on more confirmation. Seeing the signs of the breakdown on the Daily Cycle currently. The weekly Cycle has NOT yet confirmed this, so it's early days on this view. A top would bring the Oct timeframe into focus for a bottom. Given the AI capex and fiscal stimulus, this more likely to be a relatively mild cyclical bear, a shakeout, setting up for a really explosive rally for 2027-2029.
Win
▼ bear
+6.3%
114d
Mar 11
$SPY
I believe there is a good chance that Stocks have peaked for its 4 Year Cycle. Last week my active' portfolios went into more defensive positions, cash to 33%. Further selling to come on more confirmation. Seeing the signs of the breakdown on the Daily Cycle currently. The weekly Cycle has NOT yet confirmed this, so it's early days on this view. A top would bring the Oct timeframe into focus for a bottom. Given the AI capex and fiscal stimulus, this more likely to be a relatively mild cyclical bear, a shakeout, setting up for a really explosive rally for 2027-2029.
Win
▼ bear
+6.3%
114d
Mar 11
$SPY
Stocks showed us a Failed Daily Cycle this friday on closing basis. In last 4 years, only 2nd such case (March 25 other) of a Failed cycle when it wasn't expected or due. Doesn't guarantee anything, but does very often signal an intermediate timeframe downturn is underway. https://t.co/5E48hTWfpO
Win
▼ bear
+5.8%
118d
Mar 7
$BTC
Better action out of bitcoin last couple of days. Closing above here could signal a long awaited counter-trend rally. Spurred on by a strong reversal on yesterdays selloff in equities. Real trench fight. https://t.co/M516x8w7yU
Win
▲ bull
+13%
121d
Mar 4
$GDX
Gold miners showing nice resilience. They're typically far more volatile at this phase, up 400% in 24 months. https://t.co/EE6gi72wwm
Loss
▲ bull
-30.5%
123d
Mar 2
$BTC
As deeply oversold as Bitcoin is, this weekly chart remains horrendous and from a purely visual perspective, feels like it's hanging on by a thread and readying for another big leg lower. https://t.co/dvNwAeoyZ8
Loss
▼ bear
-19.4%
123d
Mar 2
$CL
Four year decline for crude oil could be coming to an end now. https://t.co/Qy00bux2Ah
Loss
▲ bull
-13.4%
133d
Feb 20
$BTC
Bitcoin price action remains horrendous. Very weak. After the recent flush out, a natural, sharp counter trend bounce would be expected, but was not forthcoming. Has to reclaim $72k to even consider a counter-trend move. Just bear market things. https://t.co/FnFvPMNcIE
Loss
▼ bear
-21.7%
136d
Feb 17
$XLE
Nice move on energy. Even with crude prices constrained. And comes with a 3.5% divi. Commodities/Energy/Materials etc all look good. https://t.co/KJoaCYLWeu
Win
▲ bull
+19.2%
149d
Feb 4
$SPY
And as good as this looks here. I also believe stocks peak within the next 12 weeks and go into a 15%-25% summer drawdown. https://t.co/z44ZG8YucH
Win
▼ bear
+8.1%
150d
Feb 3
$SPY
Still really like stocks here. Loaded long, invalidation Jan 20th lows. In a bull trend, Day 10 of the 2nd Daily Cycle. This should be the area where a push through and go happens. https://t.co/GArry6JRnP
Loss
▲ bull
-8.1%
150d
Feb 3
$GC
That was an epic two year run for gold. But the juice has been squeezed. On to the next. https://t.co/v3C3zypa99
Loss
▼ bear
-12.3%
154d
Jan 30
$BTC
Bitcoin 4 Yr Cycle update. On month 38 of 48(avg). Closing 3rd month below the 10ma. About to close 4 red months in a row, not seen since 2018. Looking like the recent move to $98k was the counter-trend move. Clear divergence from all other assets. I hate being bearish any asset, especially bitcoin. I rarely short markets or believe any decent asset class stays down for long. I always want to be a bull in general. But this "currently" is a perfect 4yr cycle and mirrors all priors. Remember you can be very bullish on the fundamentals, but also realize that everything is cyclical and respecting there is a time and place. Ofc, markets can change in a heartbeat, every strategy is breakable, and it's our job not to get hung up on any narrative or bias. In that regard, on the positive, Bitcoin's declining phase is likely accelerated now, as sentiment has been repeatedly killed. Cycle declines are ALL about sentiment clearing events, and on that front we could be looking at an earlier (month 44?) low as a result. But many of the bulls on X are just selling services, funds/DAT's, clout, etc, choosing personal gain/bias over reality and price action. Shifting narratives to keep the hope alive. They're human after-all. I think that if this consistent historical structure were to change, then we would see a close back over the 10ma and i would want to quickly start to shift focus to the bull side. If such a change is structure were to happen, then I believe it would be signaling something massive afoot. I'll never say it can't happen here, I have strong convictions that I want to constantly challenge. I also think you're not giving up (besides some upside) being defensive and risk adverse here, even if this reverses and goes on to new highs. Lastly, I also think most investors are still better off socking bitcoin away and ignoring all the volatility. And just use long drawdown period to aggressively accumulate.
Win
▼ bear
+25.5%
154d
Jan 30
$MSTR
$MSTR led the last bear market and has been leading this one too. https://t.co/r6bwJPkOzK
Loss
▼ bear
-36.8%
155d
Jan 29
$SPY
Very strong signal on Stocks here. Week 10 of the Cycle, new ATH's, and recently left behind a very clean stop with the recent Daily Cycle Low. https://t.co/8fkUTCKQi4 https://t.co/faf9xNPZA9
Loss
▲ bull
-8.9%
156d
Jan 28
$DXY
As expected, another failed Weekly Cycle for the $USD. But the index is junk, because it measures Junk vs Junk. https://t.co/yukTgG17La
Win
▼ bear
+48.2%
157d
Jan 27
$BTC
Week 10 for #Bitcoin after what was a major sentiment clearing Cycle low in Nov. In a bull market, that was a BTD event and would be pushing ATH's now, like stocks. An extremely anemic and poor response to date. Has nothing to do with gold. If stocks punch through ATH's here, this chart probably paints a little excitement for bulls. If stocks somehow fail to follow through.........
Win
▼ bear
+29%
158d
Jan 26
$SPY
Stocks trying to confirm the 2nd Daily Cycle has started. Close above 10dma today would be it. Then we can see a meaningful push through ATH's on the Weekly Cycle. https://t.co/vQsqN8QnrA
Loss
▲ bull
-8.5%
158d
Jan 26
$XMR
Prettiest long term chart in Crypto $XMR If it's for real, (the privacy/cypherpunk awakening angle) hard to put any upside number on this. https://t.co/miqnoeT6uZ
Loss
▲ bull
-59%
170d
Jan 14
$BTC
$107k incoming for Bitcoin would be not be surprising at all. But that only masks the weakness. Still no weekly swing after 8 weeks. https://t.co/pkaCKPRqGm
Win
▼ bear
+34.2%
171d
Jan 13
$GC
Formidable, but controlled appetite for gold remains. Now targeting $5,800 for this (maybe) new cycle. Just got to keep holding on. https://t.co/za8daJk5z9
Win
▲ bull
+15.9%
171d
Jan 13
$GC
I rotated out of silver last week and into gold for accounts. Hold miners though. But the strength remains. Normally a blowoff top is quickly reversed and sharply lower. This seems to be setting up for yet another leg higher. https://t.co/M6CmCGVal0
Win
▲ bull
+18.4%
175d
Jan 9
$GDX
I rotated out of silver last week and into gold for accounts. Hold miners though. But the strength remains. Normally a blowoff top is quickly reversed and sharply lower. This seems to be setting up for yet another leg higher. https://t.co/M6CmCGVal0
Loss
▲ bull
-13.4%
175d
Jan 9
$SPY
Still think stocks are really primed for a big 8 week move here. It's all lined up well. https://t.co/gehIPuaCKl
Loss
▲ bull
-8.7%
175d
Jan 9
$BTC
Spent the last 4 months with a team training an AI model off my last 10 yrs of work. Still a LOT of tweaking and correcting to do, but taking shape. I asked it - "Give me the probability that bitcoin has topped or not for the 4 year cycle on the following assumptions. We're on Month 38 currently and the high is currently the month 35 high. This is week 7 of the weekly cycle." Answer- Given your assumptions, here’s how I’d probability‑weight the 4‑year cycle right now, strictly through a cycle‑based lens, not prediction. We’ll anchor everything to what you specified: Month 38 of the 4‑year cycle Cycle high still Month 35 Weekly cycle currently Week 7 BASE ASSUMPTIONS (YOUR FRAMEWORK) 4-year cycle month: 38 (beyond all prior tops) Current cycle high: Month 35 Weekly cycle: Week 7 (early, but vulnerable) No confirmed expansion to new highs 🔴 SCENARIO 1: 4‑YEAR CYCLE HAS TOPPED Probability: ~55% Why this is the base case All prior cycles topped around Month 34–35 We are 3 months past that window with no higher high Month 35 acting as the high is classic late‑cycle behavior Week 7 is exactly where weekly cycles fail when the larger cycle is over This scenario assumes: Weekly cycle becomes left‑translated Rallies are counter‑trend The next daily/weekly breakdown confirms the post‑top phase This is the highest‑probability outcome given time + structure. 🟠 SCENARIO 2: EXTENDED TOP / DISTRIBUTION Probability: ~30% This is the “Bitcoin does what it often does — frustrates everyone” outcome. Characteristics: Month 35 remains the marginal high for now Price chops in a wide range for weeks/months Weekly cycles are mixed, not cleanly bullish or bearish Sentiment oscillates between hope and fear This still does NOT invalidate the top thesis — it just delays resolution. Important: This scenario often feels bullish, but usually resolves down, not up. 🟢 SCENARIO 3: 4‑YEAR CYCLE STILL ALIVE (NEW HIGHS) Probability: ~15% This is the low‑probability but non‑zero case. What would need to happen: Price decisively exceeds the Month 35 high Weekly cycle extends into Weeks 10–14 Expansion is impulsive, not grinding Time “stretch” is justified by structure At Month 38, the market needs to earn this outcome. Time alone no longer supports it. PROBABILITY SUMMARY 4-year top already in: 55% Extended distribution/top: 30% Cycle still bullish (new highs): 15% Risk Interpretation (This Matters Most) Even if you combine Scenarios 2 + 3 (the “not fully topped” cases), you still get: 85% probability that upside is limited, slow, or deceptive Asymmetric risk skewed to the downside That’s why treating this as “topped until proven otherwise” is not aggressive — it’s probabilistic discipline. One final Bob‑style takeaway At Month 38 + Week 7, the market doesn’t need a crash to be dangerous. It only needs to fail quietly. And those are the environments where most damage gets done.
Win
▼ bear
+31.1%
176d
Jan 8
$BTC
Key range for Bitcoin remains unresolved. Rejected and likely 60-day cycle high. But maybe is enough upside action to suggest it's part of a general counter-trend rally underway. That said, think this is classic bear market behavior. Esp considering equities at ATH's https://t.co/vqC1aC8BDS
Win
▼ bear
+31.1%
176d
Jan 8
$SPY
Week 7 of the Cycle for Stocks, sitting at the prior Weekly Cycle high. Feeling like it's working through some overhead resistance, before a new big move higher. Bitcoin catching some of the love. https://t.co/7lmeLMtsmt
Loss
▲ bull
-7.9%
179d
Jan 5
$BTC
Have very mixed feeling on Bitcoin currently. Sentiment is in the gutter and we could argue overdue some type of strong countertrend rally. Yet, I really dislike the price action, the tape feel (for me) is one wanting to start another big leg lower.
Win
▼ bear
+28.6%
187d
Dec 28
$GC
Just a glorious move on Silver. It's only trailing stops now. https://t.co/5K42R8aBs8 https://t.co/5QELVJjIHQ
Win
▲ bull
+17.4%
189d
Dec 26
$SI
Silver 2011 blowoff vs today. 2011 was a 35 week move, currently 29 weeks in here. Probably the final leg before a meaningful correction, but no idea where the top is. https://t.co/t6t2qjwMX4
Live
▲ bull
+36.2%
192d
Dec 23
$HG
Seems like Industrial Metals are really starting their big bull legs. Some rotation from Precious Metals allocations not a bad idea. Here is copper and miners. https://t.co/rmnULNue7c
Win
▲ bull
+23.3%
192d
Dec 23
$SI
Hello $70.
Live
▲ bull
+36.2%
192d
Dec 23
$BTC
Seeing "Manipulation" cries to explain crypto 2025. Pure Cope. It's called Sellers! The 4yr Cycle saw faster accumulation early, then whales (and INST's) have been unloading ever since. And ALT's, well most are just trash and that game has been played twice before. And AI sector capturing the attention. The positive, we could potentially be looking at an earlier (July/Aug) 4Yr Cycle low
Win
▼ bear
+29.1%
193d
Dec 22
$BTC
Bitcoin into the 5th week of the Weekly Cycle, and failing to respond positively during the most bullish part of the cycle. Desperately needs a tailwind from equities moving to ATH's. Absent of that, a significant continuation of the downtrend could unfold. https://t.co/khm8RgJ5Ro
Win
▼ bear
+29.1%
193d
Dec 22
$PA
Still early in Palladium bull too, strong dips to be bought. https://t.co/0gqpiCKFGX https://t.co/D5uGATwa8v
Win
▲ bull
+21%
193d
Dec 22
$GC
No quit in this gold bull. 22 months straight up since the breakout, with very little drawdown. The cleanest chart you could ever hope to ride. https://t.co/QjEQw89wiB
Win
▲ bull
+19.7%
193d
Dec 22
$SOL
$SOL - So many ALT's are peering over a cliff. Holders thinking "but there already down 50% and at support". Maybe. But have a plan, if you're still holding, for some reason. https://t.co/QIMoIjcHBh
Win
▼ bear
+35%
197d
Dec 18
$XRP
XRP will want to hold this support line. Otherwise it's an 80% drop back to the typical bear lows. https://t.co/MvEvXadkv7
Loss
▼ bear
-26.2%
198d
Dec 17
$JPM
If you're super bullish on tokenization of the financial system, don't forget to also add $JPM stock to your portfolio.
Loss
▲ bull
-10%
199d
Dec 16
$SI
Looks like another refueling pause for silver before more uponly action. https://t.co/je012B7ifd
Loss
▲ bull
-25.3%
199d
Dec 16
$BTC
I actually think Crypto as a whole was destined to put in a bear (2022-26) 4year cycle this time around. No new highs across the board and a double top or slight higher high for Bitcoin. What changed this was the crypto regulatory changes, which were a radical shift. If you consider those changes and the capital that came directly as a result, and yet the cycle unfolded as it did, it adds a lot of weight to this being a bear, or in the least, a consolidating cycle. This bodes well for the next cycle. At least the first half of it into late 2028.
Win
▼ bear
+28.6%
199d
Dec 16
$BTC
All you see are posts like this about an end of the Bitcoin 4 yr cycle. But all are coming from players deeply vested in keeping this going to sell more paper! I’m never going to say “it can’t happen”. But bitcoin’s price character past 14 yrs is pretty well defined. The arguments people are making for a change are superficial at best and smell of cope more than being practical arguments. 37 months from the last low, nothing about this price action is encouraging. By all measures of prior cycles, this one has topped. All one can do is trade what we’re given. My message is this is a time to be defensive and protect what gains have been made. And if the cries for an end of the 4 yr cycle prove correct, a chance to capture that new market dynamic will still be afforded.
Win
▼ bear
+28.6%
199d
Dec 16
$ETH
You're telling me a single entity has bought 4,000,000 ETH in less than 6 months and the price is the same. Clearly a higher high would not have been made in this cycle for ETH, like most other coins. https://t.co/NODfSX8QCu
Win
▼ bear
+38.5%
200d
Dec 15
$PA
Platinum and Palladium continue uptrend. https://t.co/kfnEgaQpuR
Win
▲ bull
+36.2%
200d
Dec 15
$PL
Platinum and Palladium continue uptrend. https://t.co/kfnEgaQpuR
Win
▲ bull
+184.8%
200d
Dec 15
$USD
$USD Daily Cycle failed. That means the weekly Cycle is now likely in decline. https://t.co/vuHD2ml1e9
Win
▼ bear
+22.3%
204d
Dec 11
$SUI
Another crypto fav. $SUI These are bear market charts in alt's. Yes this cycle is different. It's different because it's absent of new blood, is all. Or not enough of it. https://t.co/eBx2x8oWoz
Loss
▼ bear
-12.3%
204d
Dec 11
$SILJ
"That's so boring". Even boring, in the right periods, can be sexy. $SILJ.
Win
▲ bull
+46%
204d
Dec 11
$HG
Copper is in new price discovery mode. With inflation elevated and higher demand in an AI/data center world, makes sense we see a drive to $10 copper. Supply constraints. I think a small allocation to copper miners in long term accounts is a good strategy. https://t.co/2JJdrblLku https://t.co/ruDagAptJ0
Win
▲ bull
+27.1%
204d
Dec 11
$SI
$60 on Silver, trade of the year, easily. In the parabolic phase and will very likely top by end of year or Jan. Could see $80. https://t.co/KDpMPsGkHw https://t.co/41ikRrxlJm
Loss
▲ bull
-18%
206d
Dec 9
$BTC
Stocks and Bitcoin have the right cycle setup for this move to finally get some upside momentum going. https://t.co/bwtFuXLp4u
Loss
▲ bull
-32.4%
206d
Dec 9
$GC
Gold continues to produce the cleanest Cycles. Declining phases consolidate via time, and not price. Highlighting underlying strength during the cooling off phase of each cycle. Notable that after the most recent cycle high, which was parabolic in structure, it still remains above the 10wma. Suggesting to me that yet another time based consolidation is developing, setting up another run in Feb.
Win
▲ bull
+26.2%
210d
Dec 5
$ETH
$BTC should have 6 weeks of higher support in a new weekly Cycle. Impress with how $ETH is trading and could put in a really good showing over that period. https://t.co/FkTbc2GLAH
Loss
▲ bull
-41.9%
211d
Dec 4
$BTC
$BTC should have 6 weeks of higher support in a new weekly Cycle. Impress with how $ETH is trading and could put in a really good showing over that period. https://t.co/FkTbc2GLAH
Loss
▲ bull
-32%
211d
Dec 4
$GC
Silver back in a runaway, lockout move. The recent 6 week pause the midpoint of the total move, targeting $80. Similar to prior runaway moves, like 2004 + 2011. https://t.co/8Ca8asJFhU
Win
▲ bull
+25.5%
214d
Dec 1
$SI
No chill in Silver. And as you would expect, around 3+ years into a gold bull market Silver starts to outperform. The ratio has a long way to go. https://t.co/ez01fMXrLI
Loss
▲ bull
-20.7%
217d
Nov 28
$SILJ
Silver Juniors still look really good, considering where the bullion stands. $SILJ https://t.co/wS77qTtsBm
Win
▲ bull
+67.2%
219d
Nov 26
$SI
Silver continues to act really well. This is a refueling for another big continuation of the bull market. As soon as Jan too by the looks of it.
Loss
▲ bull
-23.8%
219d
Nov 26
$MSTR
MSTR down 43% since this. But looking at the last cycle, a big move up from here over a couple of months wouldn't be surprising. As high as $270. https://t.co/riSp0mLQDp
Loss
▲ bull
-37.9%
220d
Nov 25
$BTC
It’s easy to get drowned in negativity when Bitcoin is this beaten down. But no matter how the broader four year cycle unfolds, this market will see a meaningful rally soon, one that can carry us well into January. Usual disclaimer: IMO.
Loss
▲ bull
-25.9%
223d
Nov 22
$BTC
The Bitcoin 4Year Cycle peak coming once again the Cycle on Month 35 (Oct 2025) is almost all but certain now. In the meantime, a good 2 month rally will be coming. I’ll do a new 4 yr Cycle video (YouTube) on Tuesday.
Win
▼ bear
+26.3%
224d
Nov 21
$GC
Gold is consolidating once more for a continuation of the secular bull market in 2026. https://t.co/jIE70BjoWA https://t.co/tl7eYYtrJ5
Win
▲ bull
+30.4%
226d
Nov 19
$BTC
Bitcoin has been crushed. Technical and sentiment. It’s time for a strong rally now. But one that is likely to fail by Jan.
Loss
▲ bull
-32.5%
227d
Nov 18
$BTC
Up until this point the monthly (4Yr Cycle) has remained intact. But now odds Bitcoin 4yr Cycle peaked exceed 50% IMO. Suspect we're very soon going to see a sharp rally form from here. The reaction will be key and the last chance for bulls to right this ship to another high. https://t.co/BAfki3q17j
Win
▼ bear
+33.6%
231d
Nov 14
$BTC
This remains the bull case for Bitcoin here, a new Weekly Cycle. 💤 And once that happens, the lows can become defensible. https://t.co/VoaDGsQ9Jb https://t.co/db3FAiWhqm
Loss
▲ bull
-38.3%
233d
Nov 12
$MSTR
$MSTR is in a clear bear market structure now. Down -35% over 12 months and DAT's out of demand/money, all while we're in a bull market! This is a proxy for Bitcoin speculative demand and certainly not a good sign for this phase of the 4yr Cycle. This is the concern for Bitcoin, which also is structurally teetering on the edge. We like to see dips in a bull market bought quickly, not languish.
Win
▼ bear
+52.4%
233d
Nov 12
$PL
Platinum (Weekly) might have completed a 5week pause. Still looks good HTF. https://t.co/W0pMztLnHx
Win
▲ bull
+313.2%
233d
Nov 12
$BTC
Very early still, but a really positive (and different to late) feeling on the crypto tape.
Loss
▲ bull
-39.3%
238d
Nov 7
$GC
I believe gold's mini blowoff represents the the top of the FIRST half of the 8 yr cycle. A 3-6 month period of rebasing before the 2nd leg of this bull market gets going. You would want to hold through, and add on big dips. #miners for the win in the 2nd leg. https://t.co/KnLGM6kKqD
Win
▲ bull
+33.6%
239d
Nov 6
$BTC
For Crypto, this was basically a retest of the 10/10 panic, but over a more deliberate period. Sentiment is beyond wiped clean. We've hit the 50wma and the weekly cycle should start fresh. Any good upside price separation from the lows should put a line in the bull/bear market narrative at the recent lows. Bitcoin would have no business revisiting it later this month or in Dec.
Loss
▲ bull
-39.6%
240d
Nov 5
$BTC
The bull case for Bitcoin. Incoming (here or soon) weekly Cycle Low on extremely negative sentiment. Mirroring prior two cycles. https://t.co/EfAvYPVDtn
Loss
▲ bull
-38.3%
241d
Nov 4
$GC
Gold in the corrective phase of the cycle. Don't think this is a fresh buy until Jan. More for traders, as long term holders don't give up positions on this. https://t.co/KhkFeRIrrT
Loss
▼ bear
-32.9%
249d
Oct 27
$SPY
Another new ATH for stocks, shock off last week's dip and continues a really impressive 28 week run from the last cycle low. An outlier cycle that's looking more like a relentless push to its 4yr Cycle high (Maybe Q1). https://t.co/tCT76SY2Bs https://t.co/D90mYPjRMo
Win
▲ bull
+3%
252d
Oct 24
$BTC
Nice reversal off the $107k lows for bitcoin. A window has opened, lets hope it take it.
Loss
▲ bull
-42.2%
255d
Oct 21
$GC
Metals taking the elevator down. This type of crack is generally the dam breaking. Plenty of downside room to give back, but they will eventually find a new floor to rebase from. https://t.co/JzFzGx4nG4
Loss
▼ bear
-30.1%
255d
Oct 21
$SI
Metals taking the elevator down. This type of crack is generally the dam breaking. Plenty of downside room to give back, but they will eventually find a new floor to rebase from. https://t.co/JzFzGx4nG4
Loss
▼ bear
-32.6%
255d
Oct 21
$BTC
Bitcoin has again been ahead (in decline) of the broader markets. The mini crypto crash last week has been retested, Bitcoin has its shakeout now too. Really is the time for Bitcoin to lead higher now. Few excuses left. Anything below $100k and the bull market structure start to break.
Loss
▲ bull
-41.1%
259d
Oct 17
$PA
And Palladium up yet another $80 today. Getting a little stretched short-term, but the main move only started 8 weeks ago. These are types of moves you just want to be early in, and hold for the duration of whatever trend it gives us. In this case, maybe through until 2028/9. https://t.co/CTBozjMJWZ https://t.co/D5uGATvCiX
Win
▲ bull
+31.1%
260d
Oct 16
$PA
And Palladium up yet another $80 today. Getting a little stretched short-term. But these are the types of moves you just want to be early in, and hold for the duration of whatever trend it gives us. In this case, maybe through until 2028/9. https://t.co/lDt9Ban4mE https://t.co/D5uGATvCiX
Win
▲ bull
+31.1%
260d
Oct 16
$GC
Gold/silver should be just a week or two now from a big local top. Followed by a good selloff then 3-6 month basing. But we’re still ‘earlyish’ in a broader trend for metals. Metals will go through a couple more phases like the past 12 months.
Loss
▼ bear
-27.3%
261d
Oct 15
$SI
Gold/silver should be just a week or two now from a big local top. Followed by a good selloff then 3-6 month basing. But we’re still ‘earlyish’ in a broader trend for metals. Metals will go through a couple more phases like the past 12 months.
Loss
▼ bear
-35.4%
261d
Oct 15
$PA
Another strong day for Palladium. Up $60. Feels early still in this move. https://t.co/WHmxM8OVYF https://t.co/D5uGATwa8v
Win
▲ bull
+43.8%
263d
Oct 13
$MSTR
Not too late to get away from a $MSTR position. Besides the uncanny price action relative to prior cycle, I think any upside for MSTR vs Bitcoin in what remains this cycle is minimal and simply doesn't warrant the risk. Equity holders are the exit liquidity at this stage. And that's assuming Bitcoin has upside still. If it doesn't, MSTR drops like a stone.
Win
▼ bear
+66.1%
263d
Oct 13
$BTC
Shouldn't expect (at this stage of cycle) much more waiting around on $BTC at this point. Two/three days at most. We want to see that conviction through ATH's and lockout phase.
Loss
▲ bull
-49.2%
268d
Oct 8
$GC
and this gold bull market is just the ‘canary in the coal mine’ for the lost decade to come. Until then, we have time, and some good moments in markets.
Win
▲ bull
+31.5%
268d
Oct 8
$GC
Lot of gold talk on the feed today. Most of it “it’s bubble - - overbought - topped” talk. Expecting a correction at some point, but I’ll hold with overweight (mostly silver, gold/silver miners) positions. Don’t think people appreciate how big a gold bull market can be.
Win
▲ bull
+31.5%
268d
Oct 8
$SI
Silver had its highest ever close last week. Big temptation to take profit, but in a lockout move, no telling where it goes. $80 this year is possible. But once this phase does top, it will drop like a stone. https://t.co/qpSvvUhTws https://t.co/dX1uOhtbNN
Win
▲ bull
+25.4%
270d
Oct 6
$BTC
Bitcoin overbought for now but the base it came out of, the momentum, and the narratives (4yr cycle - seasonality/Oct) leads me to think they’re going to be really impatient buying it up. My thoughts. We’re in the very fast part of the cycle.
Loss
▲ bull
-48.7%
273d
Oct 3
$BTC
The week is off to good start for Bitcoin. Did we bottom? Confirmations of a new Weekly Cycle stacking up. We want to see the weekly close out strong though, but looking good. We're currently sitting above the highest weekly close ever, would be nice to end the week that way. https://t.co/67MKftCHCT https://t.co/WGmTqzq1ob
Loss
▲ bull
-48%
274d
Oct 2
$BTC
First real credible chance here that Bitcoin has started a new 60 and Weekly Cycle. Time will tell. 🤞
Loss
▲ bull
-45.2%
277d
Sep 29
